Winnipeg's Probe Research acquired by Ottawa

Winnipeg's Probe Research acquired by Ottawa-based Abacus Data

Abacus's Winnipeg office will oversee operations across Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta

Probe Research, a Winnipeg-based firm that has gauged public opinion for 32 years, is getting a new owner and new name — but the faces will stay the same.

Ottawa-based Abacus Data acquired Probe in a deal that was in the making for more than a year before being finalized last week and announced on Thursday.

"We've been growing pretty quickly across the country. We expanded into Atlantic Canada two years ago, and I thought it was time that we had some people on the ground in the Prairies," said David Coletto, CEO of Abacus, which he founded in 2010.

He called Probe "the gold standard" for research in the Prairie region.

Probe had been looking at how to spread its wings farther into Alberta and Saskatchewan when the idea of an acquisition surfaced, said Mary Agnes Welch, who joined Probe in 2018 and became a co-owner in 2024 with Curtis Brown.

"We thought, together we could really kind of … bring that western Canadian and Prairie perspective to some of their national work," Welch said about Abacus.

The two companies floated the idea about 18 months ago, "but it really ramped up right after Christmas," she said. "Things moved pretty quickly after that."

Probe's name remains on its website, but there's now another line, in smaller font, that says "an Abacus Data company."

That'll only last for a brief transition period, to allow the public and clients to become fully aware of the change.

"You'll start to see that branding kind of change pretty quickly over the next few weeks. I would say kind of mid- to late fall, we're going to retire the Probe name," Welch said.

Welch's new title is vice-president, qualitative, and chief of talent and culture for Abacus, while Brown is vice-president and managing director of western Canadian business, leading the growth across the Prairies.

Despite those changes, most things will remain the same, Coletto said.

"We want folks that have gotten to know Probe for over 30 years to feel comfortable that the same level of service, the quality of the research they do, their ability to understand what Manitobans are feeling isn't going to change," he said.

"We have every intention of continuing to invest and grow in Manitoba, but I'm going to use their skills and amplify it to other parts of the country, as well."

Abacus's Western Canada operations will be run from the current Probe office in Winnipeg's Exchange District, and the team of eight full-time employees won't see any layoffs, Welch said.

"It's all of the same staff. We have the same kind of involvement in our community, the same boots on the ground. We're still going to obsess over, you know, Wab Kinew’s polling numbers and the civic election," she said.

"We have a really good culture at Probe and we really wanted to protect that. We just have way more tools to do that."

With the acquisition, Abacus will have nearly 30 research professionals, Coletto said. He eventually wants to expand to British Columbia and Quebec.

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Being able to tap into the brain power of that larger team is a big benefit, Welch said.

"They're extremely thoughtful about kind of where Canadians' heads are at on a whole bunch of different issues," she said, in particular the turbulent tariff issues with the U.S.

"In times of real tension and real fear, having a real sense of what the country is thinking, but also a really good sense of how regions are different [is important]. That's maybe the value of what this partnership really brings."

That finger on the nation's pulse — with all its similarities and differences — is vital, Coletto said.

"I think the demand for really good data, but more importantly, really good interpretation and insights that we derive from that data is in really high demand," he said.

"Having people on the ground in these communities makes a real difference to the quality of the work we're going to do."

Welch wouldn't comment on the value of the sale, saying it's a private deal.

"But I will say this has been an incredibly friendly process," she said.

Welch and Brown, now shareholders of Abacus, are as devoted as they have ever been, she said.

"We have a stake in the success and the growth of the company, which also allows all of our staff to grow," Welch said.

"And my butt's going to be at my same desk in the Exchange District until I retire."

Darren Bernhardt has been with CBC Manitoba since 2009 and specializes in offbeat and local history stories. He is the author of two bestselling books: The Lesser Known: A History of Oddities from the Heart of the Continent, and Prairie Oddities: Punkinhead, Peculiar Gravity and More Lesser Known Histories.