Posthaste: Why the Bank of Canada might be closer than you think to ending its pause on interest rates

The Bank of Canada held interest rates at 2.25 per cent on Wednesday as it tries to balance the risks of a slowing economy against higher inflation, but one economist thinks the central bank might be closer to ending its five-decision-long pause, with September marking a possible turning point.

“In our view, the bank is getting closer to ending its pause and is waiting for the data to tell it which way to go,” Jay Zhao-Murray, chief economist at independent macroeconomic researcher Sibley Creek, said in a note on Wednesday.

He said he has a couple of reasons for why the Bank of Canada is close to ending its pause, including that it dropped the word “appropriate” from Wednesday’s statement in relation to the current level of rates and eliminated the phrase “changes in the policy rate can be expected to be small” compared with the one issued on April 29.

“The tell is that today’s hold was framed purely as a balance of risks,” he said.

Zhao-Murray said the Bank of Canada emphasized that the slow growth and rising inflation resulting from the Iran conflict had created a “conundrum for monetary policy,” with the worry being that higher interest rates could slow the economy while cutting rates could feed inflation.

He said he expects the Bank of Canada will have “enough information” by September to decide which scenario holds the upper hand: a stagnating economy undercut by trade troubles with the United States or inflation that has spread beyond the gas pumps to other consumer prices. The first could necessitate rate cuts, while the second could invite hikes.

“Back in April, the bank held rates out of patience — looking to buy time and wait out the oil price shock,” he said. “Today, it held rates out of a tension between two opposing forces.”

Zhao-Murray said once the Bank of Canada has decided which of the two scenarios holds the upper hand, it’s possible a cut or hike could come with the release of the October monetary policy report.

Derek Holt, head of Scotiabank Capital Markets Economics, said the Bank of Canada is overemphasizing the effects of the trade conflict, given that approximately 90 per cent of exports to the U.S. are entering duty-free while also benefitting from a depreciating Canadian dollar.

He said Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem is ignoring the rising prices of other commodities besides oil and natural gas, “which is just plain wrong.”

Scotiabank is calling for the interest rate to rise to three per cent by year-end.

The rest of the big banks are calling for rates to remain on hold throughout 2026, while markets fully priced in one rate hike this year, based on Bloomberg’s overnight interest rate swap data.

Zhao-Murray said Macklem provided clues as to what he will be watching for when it comes to upgrading the importance of inflation, including core inflation, the share of consumer price index (CPI) components rising faster than three per cent and medium- and long-term inflation expectations.