Liberals and Conservatives urge 'decisive' Alberta referendum vote to remain in Canada

Ottawa wants to put separatism to bed, but polls show most Albertans have doubts

In the final days leading to the Alberta referendum, federal Liberals and Conservatives are on the same page, each hoping to put to bed any question of the province's place in Canada.

On Monday, Albertans will vote on whether they want to remain a province in Canada or start the legal process toward holding a binding referendum on leaving the country.

In their respective campaigning efforts, the government and the Official Opposition have urged Albertans to decisively vote to remain.

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Prime Minister Mark Carney headlined a rally in Calgary on Thursday where he called for "a decisive result on Monday to settle this question."

Conservative MP Dane Lloyd — the caucus lead for the party's own Conservatives for Canada campaign — made an equivalent appeal in an exclusive interview on Rosemary Barton Live that aired Sunday morning.

"We need to ensure that every patriotic Canadian, Albertan gets out to vote so that we can have an overwhelmingly decisive vote for a stronger Alberta within a united Canada," Lloyd said.

Liberal MP Corey Hogan said there's likely no "magic number" that would put the issue of Alberta separation to rest. He told CBC's Rosemary Barton that the measure for success is whether there will be "an understanding from all political actors in this province that we can never do this again."

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Recent polling from Abacus Data suggests that 68 per cent of voters would opt to keep Alberta a province of Canada, while 24 per cent would vote to start the legal process to hold a binding referendum on separating from the country.

The Abacus survey, which was conducted from Oct. 7 to 13, polled 1,021 Alberta voters. The survey's data was weighted according to census data, to ensure its sample matched Alberta's population. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is approximately plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Still, the polling suggests that most voters don't expect Monday's referendum will reliably bookend the issue. Abacus found that 61 per cent of the survey's respondents said at some point, they expect to vote again on Alberta separation after Monday.

According to Hogan, who represents the riding of Calgary Confederation, a separatist sentiment is just a reality in Alberta.

"Alberta separatism has been a thing my entire life," he said.

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"It's always been a reality worth addressing, it's always been a problem that there's a number of people in Alberta who have concerns with the country as a whole," Hogan said. "But it's not realistic to say this is going to go to zero, because it's never been at zero in Alberta."

Hogan added that "we need to make sure that there are political consequences to this," suggesting Albertans have become increasingly frustrated with their provincial government for carrying out the referendum process.

"We're going to have to see where this all is on Oct. 20," he said. "I'm certainly not calling the game at this particular moment, but it's very important that we as a province have a serious talk about how we ended up here in the first place."

For their part, Conservatives point to the Liberal government as a main irritant in Alberta's relationship with Canada.

Lloyd, who represents the Alberta riding of Parkland in Parliament, said he held roundtable discussions with Albertans as part of the Conservatives for Canada campaign, "and the message that I heard that was overwhelmingly clear was that people don't have a problem with Canada, they have a problem with Ottawa."

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At the same time, the current federal government hasn't been shy about acknowledging Ottawa's role in Albertan discontent. During his Thursday rally, Carney said that growing up in Alberta, "I remember how Ottawa made Albertans feel like our resources weren't our own."

"This is about Alberta feeling like its contributions haven't always been respected," Hogan said.

"We need to make sure that this whole country sees this whole country and that we are thinking about this whole country as we build policy for this country."

What about the other nine questions?

Listed before the consequential 10th question concerning a binding separation referendum, Monday's ballot notably includes nine others.

The first nine questions are focused on immigration and constitutional reform, including a query on whether Alberta should take more control over immigration, the responsibility for which is currently shared between the federal and provincial governments in Canada.

Quebec is alone in having distinct powers regarding the selection of its immigrants.

Who else besides Danielle Smith is saying 'yes to the nine' in Alberta's referendum?

Carney says Albertans should vote ‘No to the Nine’ in referendum

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has advocated for voters to choose "yes" on the ballot's first nine questions, while Carney was clear in urging Albertans to reject them.

Asked where the Conservatives stand on the first nine questions, Lloyd said the party's campaign has been "laser-focused" on the issue of a separation referendum "and that issue alone."

"Immigration has always involved federal-provincial conversations, and I think that they've been largely productive and largely fruitful," the Liberals' Hogan said. "We don't need people trying to hold guns to each other's heads to have constructive relationships in Canada."

David Cummings is a reporter for CBC News.