Toronto’s sense of safety was shaken after a deadly festival shooting. What can crime data tell us?

Toronto police data shows shootings are at their lowest in last 5 years

Toronto's Salsa on St. Clair festival was rocked by gun violence that left two dead and five injured last weekend.

Photo: The Canadian Press / Keito Newman

Alina Snisarenko (new window) · CBC News

Nearly a week after Toronto's Salsa on St. Clair festival was rocked by deadly gun violence (new window), calls continue to mount for more to be done on safety in the city, however police data suggests shootings are at their lowest point in five years.

In the days since the shooting, festival organizers have threatened to pull the plug (new window) unless police and the city come up with concrete commitments to enhance public safety. Toronto police Chief Myron Demkiw has meanwhile called for federal legislative reform, so that any shooting in a public space, fatal or not, gets treated as first-degree murder.

Josh Matlow, the local city councillor for the area, submitted a safety motion to the city's economic and development committee this week. And mayoral candidate and Coun. Brad Bradford chose to slam the mayor and police, calling their response out of touch in a video posted to X, formerly Twitter.

According to Toronto police data, there were 38 shootings in 2026 from January 1 to July 12 this year. That's the fewest shootings the city has had in the same time period in the last five years, preliminary Toronto police data analyzed by CBC News suggests.

Shooting deaths for the same time period are higher than last year, however they remain on the lower end in comparison to the last five years.

Photo: CBC News / Alina Snisarenko

See interactive chart here (new window)

Shootings typically peak from July to September: police

Asked about shooting deaths being higher so far this year than in the same timeframe last year, Nadine Ramadan, spokesperson for Toronto police, said while that's accurate, shooting deaths are relatively infrequent events.

As shooting deaths are relatively infrequent events, each incident represents a substantial proportion of the total. As three of these deaths occurred over this past weekend alone, those incidents have had a significant impact on this metric, Ramadan said in an emailed response Thursday.

In addition to two shootings at Salsa on St. Clair last week, there was also a fatal shooting in North York (new window) on Friday.

Ramadan also said firearm violence typically peaks between July and September, so seasonal trends should be taken into account.

Shootings are still the leading cause of homicides in the city. According to the homicide dashboard on Toronto police's website, there have been 20 homicides so far this year, of which 14 were shooting deaths.

WATCH | Residents recount what happened moment after festival shooting:

But even though shootings are down, Lee says trauma from a deadly shooting like Salsa on St. Clair can tarnish the ways people feel in and see public spaces, and that can become a talking point for politicians.

In the aftermath of these tragedies there's almost always a familiar call for law and order, to get tough on crime, and there are political actors who almost always jump on that narrative, he said.

Sometimes the data tells a story that could feel unpopular, but it's truthful.

A proactive approach to gun violence, such as investment in communities, after school programs and health care access in vulnerable communities could help address the root causes of shootings, Lee said.

Alina Snisarenko is a Toronto-based journalist. She currently works as a digital writer for CBC Toronto and has previously worked as an associate producer with CBC Radio's Metro Morning. You can reach her with story ideas or tips at alina.snisarenko@cbc.ca.