‘Small probability’: Former top soldier on risk of U.S. military action against Canada

OTTAWA — A former commander of the Canadian Armed Forces says he considers the risk of U.S. military action against Canada to be remote, but he acknowledges the fact that risk exists at all as a sign of the rapidly changing global security environment.

Retired general Wayne Eyre, who served as chief of the defence staff between 2021 and 2024, made the comments in an interview on CTV Power Play with Vassy Kapelos while promoting his new memoir, “Into the Breach: A Soldier’s Journey.”

“As the prime minister said, it was extreme tail risk: so very, very small probability,” Eyre told Kapelos, when asked about Prime Minister Mark Carney telling The New York Times he had considered the possibility that U.S. President Donald Trump could order military action against Canada.

“One of the jobs of military planners is to imagine those possible scenarios, and you can only develop plans for so much in terms of putting the five Ws to something,” Eyre said. “And so you go from the imaginations (and) conceiving step to fleshing out a plan. Well, you have to decide: What is more probable? What is more likely? Where are you going to put your effort?”

“I would say this is a small probability. I’m not inside the tent anymore, so I don’t know what the current direction is,” Eyre added.

That said, the retired general said U.S. military action against Canada was never considered a probability when he was “inside the tent.”

“And the very fact that we are talking about it now shows how significantly the security environment has changed,” Eyre said.

Carney sat down for an hour-long interview with The New York Times last week, and his response to a reporter’s question asking if he was ever “seriously concerned” about a potential military threat to Canada made headlines around the world.

A transcript of the interview published by The New York Times notes the prime minister paused before answering.

“You have a responsibility in these roles to look at extreme tail risk,” Carney told The New York Times. “So, and as the tail fattens when a leader of a country threatens your sovereignty, you adjust accordingly.”

“That’s just risk management,” he added. “That’s not a base case, but it would be irresponsible not to take certain things into consideration.”

When a reporter followed up and asked whether he had made certain preparations for potential military action, Carney responded: “I’ll leave my answer where it was.”

Carney has not spoken with Canadian media since sitting down for the interview with the U.S. news outlet.

Canada-U.S. relations have been strained since the very beginning of Trump’s second term, with the two countries locked in a worsening tit-for-tat trade war punctuated by the U.S. president’s consistent mocking approach to Canadian sovereignty.

After bilateral trade talks collapsed in August, Carney told reporters in Ottawa that Canada was “at war” with the United States over trade and accused the Trump administration of making demands that would infringe upon Canadian sovereignty.

Trump told reporters in the Oval Office Monday that Canada was treating the U.S. unfairly and said he believed Canada will fold on the trade dispute in the next “three to four weeks.”