Most Albertans expect to vote on separation again, new polling suggests

Most Albertans expect to vote on separation again, new polling suggests

Just 14% believe debate will be settled for generation or longer after referendum

Most Albertans are ready to move on from debating whether to separate from Canada, but few believe the matter will be settled for a generation or longer after Monday’s referendum, new polling suggests.

Results in a new survey from Abacus Data found 61 per cent of respondents expect to vote again on Alberta separation at some point in the future after the Oct. 19 referendum.

Even if most Albertans vote to remain in Canada next week, just 14 per cent said they the believe the debate on Alberta separatism will be settled for a generation or longer.

But 67 per cent of respondents in the same survey said they want the provincial government to instead focus more on everyday issues like health care, affordability and jobs.

Another 22 per cent said they want the province to keep pressing for greater provincial autonomy.

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The debate surrounding the upcoming referendum question on Alberta independence has lasted the better part of a year, but Abacus Data strategist Robson Fletcher noted the new poll suggests few Albertans believe Monday's referendum will settle that debate.

“We are talking about a pretty overwhelming majority of Albertans who believe this issue is not going away, even if there is a decisive victory for the remain side in the October referendum," said Fletcher.

"They might want it to go away, but they don't expect it will."

Abacus's survey was conducted from Oct. 7 to 13, with 1,021 Alberta voters polled. The survey's data was weighted according to census data, to ensure its sample matched Alberta's population. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is approximately +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Just 32 per cent of respondents said they expect Albertans who disagree about separation will move past their differing views after the referendum. Most respondents, 51 per cent, said they think that result is unlikely.

Fletcher noted the divide between the two camps is large, and the opposing positions are inherently difficult to reconcile.

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"If one person wants to split up the country, that's very difficult for someone who's on the other side to accept, and vice versa," said Fletcher.

"The fact that Albertans have been so entrenched in this, and there has been very little bridging of the divide to date, is likely related to this sense that it's not going away. When people are that dug in, it's not like they just give up that easily or change their minds that easily or just move on that easily."

Leaders see different futures for separatist debate

If Albertans vote to remain in Canada, another question on separatism won't happen as long as Premier Danielle Smith is in office, the premier said herself last week.

But Keith Wilson, a leader of the independence group Let Alberta Decide, told CBC News in an interview this week he expects support for an independent Alberta to keep getting stronger and stronger, regardless of the referendum's result.

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Mount Royal University policy analyst Lori Williams noted some Albertans believe supporters of separation will push for continued referendum questions on the subject, and the province's Citizen Initiative Act leaves another future vote on the table.

“Unless the law is changed, the possibility of another referendum on separation being brought as early as October 2028 exists," said Williams.

But Williams said past polling has also found, like the new Abacus data, that voters want the province to focus on issues like health care and affordability. She said many Albertans are also unhappy about of all the time and money the province has spent on the referendum.

Albertans' trust in the process

Most respondents, 68 per cent, said they trust Elections Alberta to count referendum ballots fairly. But only four in 10 respondents believe the referendum's final result will be respected by both sides of the debate.

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Williams said she's encouraged to see the faith voters still have in Elections Alberta, because it counters some concerns voters have expressed online about the potential for fraud to occur in the referendum.

But she said she’s struck by the discrepancy between the trust Abacus’s poll indicates for Elections Alberta, and the number of respondents who think the other side of the debate won’t accept the result.

“That illustrates one of the divisions that Albertans are going to have to wrestle with going forward,” said Williams.

Andrew Jeffrey is a multimedia journalist with CBC Calgary. He previously worked for CBC News in his hometown of Edmonton, reported for the StarMetro Calgary, and worked as an editor for Toronto-based magazines Strategy and Realscreen. You can reach him at andrew.jeffrey@cbc.ca.