First Thing: German far

Good morning. A far-right leader who has won an important state election in Germany has thanked Elon Musk for his support, as voices in Europe warn the result is a serious moment for the continent. No far-right party has led or formed a government in Germany since the defeat of nazism at the end of the second world war.

Ulrich Siegmund, the Alternative für Deutschland’s lead candidate, thanked Musk on X after the tech billionaire said “Well done!” in German to the AfD co-founder Alice Weidel. The populist, far-right, anti-immigration party won the vote in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt.

During its campaign, the AfD sought to capitalise on a mood of nostalgia for the communist East Germany and discontent among east Germans. The party has promised a remigration and deportation offensive, to ban rainbow flags in schools and halt the building of new windfarms. It wants to change the slogan of the state from “Think Modern” to “Think German”, and reintroduce the singing of the country’s national anthem in schools.

Will the AfD be able to form a state government? Despite its resounding victory, the party fell just short of a majority. It was seeking an absolute majority in the state legislature to govern alone and overcome the so-called “firewall” of the mainstream parties, which refuse to work with it. The final results showed the AfD falling three seats short, with 39 lawmakers in an 83-member legislature.

What has been the reaction in Washington and Moscow? Donald Trump posted a screenshot of the election projection without comment on his Truth Social site. The Russian presidential envoy Kirill Dmitriev took a screengrab of Trump’s post and praised a “historic win for the pragmatic AfD”. The AfD is pro-Kremlin, urging a stop to support for Ukraine and pushing for Ukrainians in Germany to no longer receive refugee status.

Iran war likely to drag on for another six months, former US defense secretary warns

Donald Trump’s war with Iran is likely to drag on for another six months, the former US defense secretary Leon Panetta has said, adding that it risks becoming another “forever war in the Middle East”, with no clear end in sight.

“It’s no mystery that the United States and Iran are caught in a terrible stalemate, in which there really are very few options available to bring this war to an end,” said Panetta, who also served as CIA director under Barack Obama. “I think the likelihood is this war is going to continue for another six months without being resolved,” he added.

Who else has been saying Trump’s war may not achieve its aims? The US energy secretary, Chris Wright, said on Sunday morning Washington might not be able to reach an agreement with Tehran that would prevent Iran from having nuclear weapons. “We are strangling their economy to try to bring either a change in policy from the existing regime or a new regime,” he said.

Lindsay Clancy murder trial ends in dramatic deadlock

Lindsay Clancy, prosecutors, defense lawyers, the judge and the millions watching on were back where they started after her five-week trial over the murder of her three children ended in a mistrial. The case has ceased for the moment, but the legal wrangling is not over and a second trial could now be on the horizon, prolonging and repeating an agonizing spectacle that has gripped the US and the world.

What will Clancy’s defense team most likely do? They will almost certainly push to have the charges against their client dropped, aggressively lobby against another trial and make a case to the district attorney’s office along the lines of: “Why are you doing this to this poor woman? She’s still clearly obviously suffering. She’s been punished with her paralysis and, worse than that, the loss of her three children.”

Flock surveillance cameras spur rare bipartisan backlash

Growing factions from both sides of the political aisle in the US are pushing back against surveillance cameras made by a single company, a rare response in a sharply divided country with a president pushing an unwaveringly pro-tech agenda.

There are about 120,000 Flock cameras across the US, which conduct roughly 2bn scans a month. The company is staring down controversy after reports of abuses of its cameras by police officers in multiple states, who have used them to stalk former lovers and track people seeking abortions. The network the cameras feed into is also frequently used by US Immigration and Customs Enforcement.

Hawaii has declared a state of emergency as powerful Hurricane Lowell makes its way toward the islands.

The Trump administration renewed its appeal to the US supreme court to allow restrictions on mail-in voting, after a federal judge had blocked new limits.

More voters are identifying as Democrats and shying away from calling themselves Republicans, according to the latest quarterly data.

Falling ceiling debris at the Kennedy Center has renewed debate over much-needed renovations, with preservationists worried the board may seize on the incident to close the institution.

The UK government has condemned balaclava-clad far-right activists who blocked roads in the south of England after a boat carrying asylum seekers arrived in Portsmouth.

Stat of the day: At least five dead after Amazon cargo plane crashes at Miami airport

An Amazon cargo plane crashed at Miami international airport in Florida after the flight overshot the runway, striking several vehicles and resulting in at least five deaths. Three people were left in critical condition and two more were hospitalized as operations at the airport were brought to a halt.

Building Power: Even in safe-haven Massachusetts, trans care is at risk, but young people are fighting to protect it

Organizers with the youth-led group Protect Trans Futures (PTF) have staged an occupation, refusing to leave without a commitment to protect civil rights for trans children.

Don’t miss this: Tennessee says child rapists deserve to die – now it prepares to execute one of their victims

Aged just 18, Christa Pike was sentenced to death for murder. But what if the jury knew she had suffered years of sexual abuse as a child? Ed Pilkington reports.

… or this: Graphic novel aims to remember the history and horror of genocide

Dana Mashoian Walrath’s The Book of Genocides is an audacious and personal new look at genocides from Germany to Palestine. David Smith speaks to the author, who expects to get banned from Israel as a result of her work.

Climate check: The heat crisis has mayors of major cities all facing the same question

Writing for the Guardian, the mayors of Paris, Milan and Phoenix explain how they are working jointly to find solutions that protect vulnerable residents, communicate risk, and redesign neighborhoods in preparation for hotter summers.

Last Thing: How the Muppets rocked the world with anarchy, nonsense and the inimitable Miss Piggy

Who doesn’t love the The Muppet Show, which first hit our screens 50 years ago? Darren Richman looks back at that incredible burst of creativity from Jim Henson and company.

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