Copper and artificial intelligence: investor expectations are racing ahead of real demand

Oil prices surged by more than 4% on Monday after fresh Israeli strikes on Iran and renewed attacks in Lebanon undermined hopes that the broader regional conflict could soon come to an end.

During trading, Brent crude futures rose by $4.02, or 4.3%, to $97.11 per barrel by 09:14 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained $3.90, or 4.3%, to reach $94.44 per barrel.

Israel said on Monday that it had targeted the Mahshahr petrochemical complex in southwestern Iran, along with other military targets, despite reports indicating that US President Donald Trump had urged Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to refrain from carrying out additional attacks.

Iran’s semi-official Fars News Agency quoted a local official as saying that parts of the facility had sustained damage.

Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS, said that the exchange of strikes between Iran and Israel is increasing market concerns that restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could remain in place for a longer period, pushing oil prices higher.

Roughly one-fifth of global daily oil and liquefied natural gas supplies pass through the Strait of Hormuz off the coast of Iran.

Later on Monday, comments attributed to Iran’s ambassador to Moscow indicated that the strait would remain open, but under new conditions to be determined by Iran and Oman, including the imposition of transit fees.

Monday’s gains erased the losses oil prices suffered on Friday, when they fell on hopes that tensions between the United States and Iran might ease.

Since the outbreak of the conflict a little over 100 days ago, Brent crude has climbed 34%, while West Texas Intermediate has surged 41%. Brent prices had approached $120 per barrel in March.

On Sunday, Iran launched a new wave of missiles at Israeli targets in response to strikes carried out in Lebanon.

Despite the escalation, US President Donald Trump maintained that a broader agreement to end the conflict remains highly achievable.

Iran has made a ceasefire in Lebanon a condition for any peace agreement with Washington. Lebanon and Israel announced a ceasefire agreement on June 3 following negotiations held in Washington.

Amid the supply disruptions caused by the conflict, the OPEC+ alliance approved its fourth increase in oil production targets in four months on Sunday.

Analysts said the decision is unlikely to have a major impact because many alliance members are already unable to reach their production targets, either due to disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz closure or, in Russia’s case, because Ukrainian drone attacks have weakened production capacity.

Jorge Leon, Head of Geopolitical Analysis at Rystad Energy, said the practical impact of such a decision under current market conditions would be close to zero.

He added that refineries around the world have rushed to secure crude oil from any available source to replace the millions of barrels per day that are no longer flowing through the strait, noting that the world has lost more than one billion barrels of supply since the conflict began.