'The single largest obstacle': Expert questions whether Canada can trust another U.S. trade deal

Canada has left the door open to restarting trade negotiations with the United States. But if the two countries eventually reach another agreement, can Ottawa trust it to last?

Prime Minister Mark Carney said any future deal needs "stability and credibility" after negotiations collapsed last month.

The breakdown marked the latest escalation in a trade war that has hit key Canadian sectors, including steel, aluminum and autos. The U.S. imposed tariffs of up to 50 per cent on $27.6 billion worth of Canadian goods in August, prompting Ottawa to announce matching counter-tariffs beginning Sept. 8.

Carney has also pointed to shifting U.S. positions since negotiations ended, raising questions about how much certainty another agreement could provide.

For Akaash Maharaj, a senior fellow at the University of Toronto's Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, that uncertainty has become the central problem.

"In my mind, this is the single largest obstacle to any trade deal with the United States," Maharaj told Yahoo Canada.

Can Canada trust another U.S. deal?

Maharaj pointed to the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA), which came into force in 2020 after being negotiated during U.S. President Donald Trump's first term.

He argued the Trump administration's willingness to impose tariffs despite the existing trade framework gives Canada reason to question how durable another agreement would be.

"The reality is that, given the Trump administration's behaviour, no deal that any state signs with them can be considered final and binding," Maharaj said.

That doesn't mean he thinks Canada should stop negotiating.

Maharaj said an agreement could offer relief from the current dispute. However, Ottawa should view it differently than it may have viewed trade agreements in the past.

He described any new deal as "a promise of short-term peace" rather than a guarantee that further demands won't follow.

"Even if a trade agreement is signed between the United States and Canada, the government of Canada has to understand that it cannot let its guard down," he said.

Phil Triadafilopoulos, a University of Toronto political science professor, said Canada's economic relationship with the U.S. gives Ottawa a powerful reason to keep pursuing an agreement.

"If Washington offers an acceptable deal, Carney will make the deal, and Canadians will probably thank him for it," Triadafilopoulos told Yahoo Canada.

Despite Canada's push to diversify its trade, the U.S. remains by far its largest export market. About two-thirds of Canadian exports went south of the border in July.

Triadafilopoulos said decades of economic integration cannot be undone quickly.

"I think the idea that I'm hearing is that we have to become less dependent, but that can't happen overnight," he said.

"It took decades for this relationship to build up, and it would take a long time for it to wind down. In the meantime, there's a lot at stake."

That leaves Ottawa trying to preserve access to its largest trading partner while building alternatives if the relationship becomes less predictable.

Has the Canada-U.S. relationship fundamentally changed?

Maharaj said he believes the uncertainty goes beyond tariffs.

He argued the broader expectation that countries can negotiate agreements and rely on one another to honour them has weakened.

Still, neither expert suggested Canada can simply walk away from its relationship with the U.S.

For Maharaj, even a temporary agreement may be preferable to an escalating trade war. For Triadafilopoulos, Canada's deep economic ties make finding a workable compromise necessary.

Carney is pursuing both tracks. He said Thursday that Canada remains ready to strike a deal that benefits both countries, while his government continues efforts to strengthen domestic production and diversify trade.

For now, Triadafilopoulos said the biggest uncertainty is whether Washington and Ottawa can reach an acceptable compromise at all.

"The question is whether they can make it to that point."