Texas Tech vs Houston Prediction: Odds, expert picks, team and player news, betting trends, and stats

A Big 12 matchup is set for Texas football under the lights on a Texans holy day — that's right baby, Friday! The #13 Texas Tech Red Raiders (2-0) survived Oregon State in Week 2 and welcome #22 Houston (2-0) to Lubbock for a conference showdown. Texas Tech won last year's meeting 35-11, but Houston's quarterback, Connor Weigman exited the game in the second quarter with an injury and Houston never scored in the second half.

The Red Raiders defense was exposed a bit in a 35-24 win against Oregon State. The formidable unit from 2025 has been replaced by a unit that allowed 417 passing yards to the Beavers. Oregon State threw for 281 yards last year versus Texas Tech — and that was the most the defense allowed all 2025. The Red Raiders are also dealing with Will Hammond coming into his own as the starting quarterback. Hammond was sacked four times last week and ended his day with 189 passing yards and one touchdown on 20-of-26. Houston will present another tough test for both the Texas Tech offense and defense.

Houston has a dynamic duo made up by veteran quarterback Connor Weigman who started last year for the Cougars and played three years at Texas A&M before that, plus running back Makhi Hughes who transferred from Oregon after Tulane and has three touchdowns and 150 total yards through to games. Houston's defense had four sacks against Oregon State and gave up 376 passing yards to the Beavers in a 33-20 win. Both pass defenses will be called into question on Friday night when two of the top five teams in the Big 12 meet.

Let's dive into the schools on both sides of the ball, look at a few key players, and see where the numbers take us.

Date: Friday, September 18, 2026

Game Odds for Houston vs Texas Tech

Moneyline: Texas Tech Red Raiders (-285), Houston Cougars (+230)

Head Coach: Joey McGuire2026 Record: 2-0 (0-0)Offensive Points Per Game: 35.0 (T-31st)Defensive Points Per Game: 24.0 (T-61st)2026 Strength of Schedule: 96th2026 Remaining Strength of Schedule: 66th

The Texas Tech Red Raiders Offense:

Last season, Texas Tech opened the year with 67 and 62 points in their first two games. This year, the Red Raiders have scored 33 and 35. The offense is still finding itself with Will Hammond at the helm, but they have plenty of talent spearheaded by a three-back committee — J'Koby Williams, Cameron Dickey, and Quinten Joyner. The trio has a 324 rushing yards and four touchdowns on 73 carries (4.4 ypc) and 12 receptions for 81 yards (6.7 ypc). The Red Raiders have ran for 155 and 173 yards in two games. Whether or not Tech has success on the ground early and how Hammond is protected on third down will tell the story of how this game goes.

Texas Tech Player to Watch on Offense: QB Will Hammond

Will Hammond tossed seven touchdowns and ran for another five last year in relief. Hammond has been ultra-efficient through two games completing 76.7% of his passes for 487 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception. Hammond was also sacked four times, which is more than he was sacked all 2025 (3). Houston sacked Oregon State four times and will apply pressure on Hammond. He's yet to use his legs in 2026, but that could change here after coming off a career-worst -22 rushing yards on six attempts (four sacks).

The Texas Tech Red Raiders Defense:

Last season, Texas Tech allowed 21 total points through the first two games and this year's Red Raiders crew gave up 24 to Oregon State and 10 to Abilene Christian. The defense has taken an obvious step back, especially in the secondary. Texas Tech didn't allow a 300-yard passer last year and Oregon State snapped that with 413 last weekend. Texas Tech won last year's meeting 35-11 holding Houston scoreless in the second half. Connor Weigman also got hurt that game, so the Cougars played their backup for a part of the second quarter and all of the second half.

Texas Tech Player to Watch on Defense: LB Ben Roberts

Ben Roberts is in his fourth year as a starter for Texas Tech and of to another solid start with 15 tackles, one sack, and one forced fumble through two games. Roberts has 294 career tackles with 105, 84, and 90 through the first three seasons. The captain will hit 300 career tackles at home Friday night. He is two forced fumbles away from 10 in his career and still searching for his first interception of 2026 (5 in his career).

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Head Coach: Willie Fritz2026 Record: 2-0 (0-0)Offensive Points Per Game: 33.0 (38th)Defensive Points Per Game: 20.0 (T-46th)2026 Strength of Schedule: 125th2026 Remaining Strength of Schedule: 41st

The Houston offense has some home run hitters for quarterback Connor Weigman. With 33 points per game, we haven't even seen this bunch get started. Makhi Hughes (Oregon), Re'Shaun Sanford II, Amare Thomas, Koby Young, and Patrick Overmyer (UTSA) all have plays of at least 30 yards through two games. The offense has been more run heavy through two games with 41 and 45 carries to 31 and 19 pass attempts, but that could change with a visit to Lubbock.

Houston Player to Watch on Offense: QB Connor Weigman

This is kind of a revenge game for Weigman or maybe one he just has circled. After three seasons at Texas A&M, Weigman transferred to Houston in 2025 and was having a great year (26 TDs, 9 INTs, 2,741 yards) until he was injured against Texas Tech. It was 25-3 when Weigman exited after he threw an interception and fumbled, so I'd imagine he'd want a redo at that performance. Weigman only had one 300-yard performance last year, but there's a chance it comes here if Houston rips off Oregon State's script and air it out.

Houston had a tune-up game against Southern last week (77-6 win), so we can't judge much there, but there was a lot to like against Oregon State. The Cougars held the Beavers to 4-of-15 on third downs, 26 rushing yards on 25 carries, and recorded four sacks. Despite losing the turnover battle 2-0, Houston's defense held Oregon State to seven points off turnovers and 20 points overall.

Houston Player to Watch on Defense: DB Jalen Mayo

Jalen Mayo transferred over from Stephen F. Austin following 47 tackles, 9 pass deflections, one forced fumble, and four interceptions. In his Cougars debut, Mayo recorded six tackles and in the previous game against Southern, the senior grabbed a sack, one fumble forced and recovery, plus a pass deflection. He can do a little both of everything for this Houston secondary.

Houston is 1-1 ATS and 2-0 to the Over this season

Texas Tech is 0-2 ATS and 1-1 to the Over

Houston was 5-1 ATS on the road in 2025

Texas Tech was 7-0 ATS at home in 2025

Houston was 8-5 to the Over last season and 4-2 to the Over on the road

Texas Tech was 9-5 to the Under last year and 4-3 to the Over at home

Houston is 4-3-1 ATS as a road underdog since 2024

Houston is 6-2 to the Under as a road underdog since 2024

"It's obvious that Texas Tech isn't the same unit as last year with both sides of the ball taking a step back. However, I think the offense has taken the biggest dip. Will Hammond has led Tech to 33 and 35 points through two games and he's been unimpressive. Whether the expectations were too high or he's not into full-season rhythm, I just thought this Red Raiders offense would look better.

Houston has a veteran front seven and can apply pressure. With their quarterback and running back duo, Houston could go score for score if that's where the game goes, so I lean the +7.5, but think the best bet is for Texas Tech to go Under 31.5 points down to 30.5. Texas Tech scored 35 against Houston last year and this Cougars team is better this season."

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