Science over politics in battle against El Niño

The India Meteorological Department’s forecast leaves little room for complacency. With El Niño expected to intensify and the Indian Ocean Dipole likely to remain neutral, Telangana, like several other states, is facing the prospect of drought-like conditions. The state’s rainfall deficit, currently at 25 percent, may increase to 30 percent by the month-end. It is worrying news for Telangana, one of the top paddy producers in the country.

The state produced 295 lakh tonnes of paddy in the kharif and rabi seasons last year and acquired a record 147 lakh tonnes, accounting for 61 percent of the country’s procurement. A weak monsoon, therefore, is not merely an agricultural concern. It would have far-reaching implications for rural incomes and the state’s economy. Farmers, tenant farmers and those employed in allied sectors will all be at the receiving end. The Telangana government has responded with contingency plans, while farmers have been advised to shift from paddy to less water-intensive crops wherever necessary. It has constituted a 27-member multi-disciplinary expert committee to assess the El Niño’s impact and recommend mitigation and adaptation measures. Such scientific planning is essential for all states at a time when variable climate patterns are becoming the norm.