Republicans split on Canada as Trump’s trade war escalates: polls

Americans are becoming increasingly divided on their feelings about their northern neighbours and the freshly stoked trade war, according to new polls released this week.

Polling conducted by YouGov for The Economist found that 38 per cent of Republican voters “now view Canada as unfriendly or an enemy, by far the highest level in the past decade” and up from 22 per cent in February polling. Only 12 per cent of Republicans felt the same way in April 2024, before U.S. President Donald Trump began his second term.

Meanwhile, only eight per cent of self-identified Democrats viewed Canada in the same light, up from three per cent this February.

Overall, a majority of Americans (net 64 per cent) describe Canada as either an ally (39 per cent) or friendly (25 per cent). Less than a quarter (net 22 per cent) now see Canada as unfriendly (19 per cent) or an enemy (three per cent) — “a new high since 2016.”

YouGov also polled respondents about Trump’s renaming of Lake Ontario to Lake America in the U.S., finding most citizens (68 per cent) strongly or somewhat disapproved of the move.

The 17 per cent who strongly or somewhat approved were predominantly Republicans, but Republicans more broadly were divided, with 41 per cent disapproving and 37 per cent endorsing it.

“The exception is MAGA Republicans: 47 per cent approve of the renaming and 29 per cent disapprove,” YouGov wrote, “while non-MAGA Republicans disapprove by 67 per cent to 22 per cent.”

A similar pattern emerged on a question regarding Canada’s trade treatment of the U.S.

Asked whether they felt Canada was treating the U.S. unfairly in trade, 45 per cent said no, 28 per cent said yes and the remaining 27 per cent were unsure. Republicans (49 per cent) were more likely than Democrats (11 per cent) to say Canada was being unfair.

But fewer Republicans who identified as non-MAGA (33 per cent) judged Canada to be unfair, compared to 58 per cent of MAGA Republicans.

Polling by Ipsos also explored Americans’ feelings on the new 50 per cent tariffs enacted by the Trump administration last month, finding more Republicans support (44 per cent) than oppose (33 per cent) the sanctions, with 22 per cent unsure.

Republicans were similarly split on who was most responsible for the trade hostilities — Canada (31 per cent), the U.S. (19 per cent) or both equally (30 per cent). A fifth of respondents (20 per cent) were unsure.

And when it comes to ending the trade dispute, the majority of respondents (68 per cent) said the U.S. should be willing to “make tradeoffs with Canada even if it means it doesn’t get most of what it wants.” Only a quarter of respondents (25 per cent) want team Trump to “take a tough stance with Canada and insist on getting most of what it wants.”

Across political lines, while Democrat voters are overwhelmingly (88 per cent) in favour of concessions that would leave the U.S. short of its desires, Republicans were largely split on the matter — 47 per cent on the side of trade-offs and 50 per cent in support of holding firm.