Posthaste: Tariffs — especially against Canada

United States tariffs, especially those against Canada, don’t compute for many Americans and will factor in how people vote in the U.S. midterm elections, a new survey says.

Almost 60 per cent of Americans said they oppose tariffs on Canada, the highest level of opposition amongst a list of countries that includes Russia, China, Mexico, India, Japan and England, the Cato Institute and Morning Consult Holdings Inc. survey of 2,000 people said.

After Canada, a slight majority of Americans were against hitting England with tariffs.

“Presumably, people don’t perceive there to be a national security threat from Canada like they do from Russia or from China, and so my takeaway from that result was that Americans do support tariffs when they perceive the country to be a rival,” Emily Ekins, a vice-president for policy and society and director of polling at the Cato Institute, said.

“But for countries like Canada or England, majorities oppose putting tariffs on those countries, and it’s precisely for the reason that there’s not a national security threat that people perceive.”

Support for tariffs against Russia and China was 60 per cent and 57 per cent, respectively. Slightly more than half support tariffs on India and Mexico, while Japan was a coin toss.

Political orientation revealed some stark differences.

Republicans support tariffs against all countries, including Canada at 58 per cent, while Democrats oppose levies on all countries except Russia. Opposition to tariffs on Canada is highest amongst Independent voters at 64 per cent.

Responses were measured in March, but re-released in tandem with another survey that indicated tariffs could sway how Americans vote in the upcoming midterm elections on Nov. 3.

Seventy-five per cent of those surveyed said tariffs will factor into how they decide to vote, the same percentage who said tariffs had made life more expensive.

That survey of more than 4,000 U.S. voters said Americans are generally open to the idea that tariffs could help to support U.S. jobs and the economy.

“They like the idea in theory, but they are very unwilling to pay much for that,” Ekins said.

The Yale Budget Lab and the Tax Foundation estimated current U.S. tariffs cost the average American household between US$800 and US$900 a year.

“We found most Americans don’t want to pay even $100 more a year in higher prices for tariffs,” Ekins said.

But half said they didn’t think tariffs were working to support U.S. manufacturing, which is one of U.S. President Donald Trump’s goals.

Other surveys of Americans’ attitudes toward Canada and tariffs echo the Cato Institute findings.

For example, an Angus Reid Institute poll said 59 per cent of Americans oppose tariffs against Canada, though MAGA Republicans strongly favoured them while non-MAGA Republicans were split. Nine in 10 Democrats were opposed.

An Economist/YouGov poll tracked similar results regarding tariffs, but said that Americans’ views of Canada as an ally have deteriorated.

As of August, 39 per cent of Americans said Canada was an ally, down from a high of 64 per cent in October 2020 and 56 per cent in mid-2016.

On the flip side, 19 per cent of Americans said they viewed Canada as unfriendly compared to two per cent a decade ago. Three per cent said Canada was an enemy, up from one per cent in 2016.

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As U.S. trade tensions bear down on the economy, Canada will need to boost business confidence and investment if it wants to maintain recent upward momentum, Deloitte says in its latest outlook.

The firm’s fall economic report, released Tuesday, revised its 2026 GDP forecast up 0.2 percentage points to 0.9 per cent based on Canada’s ability to navigate the turbulence caused by “an unstable trading relationship with the U.S. and elevated energy prices.”

However, the strong 3.3 per cent GDP gain in the second quarter could be the last “highlight” for a while, Deloitte chief economist Dawn Desjardins said. — Jane Switzer, Financial Post

With retirement in sight, Christopher, 64, has built an investment and real estate portfolio valued at nearly $3.5 million. His key financial concerns are focused on estate planning and how best to leave a tax-efficient inheritance for his two adult sons. He owns a rental property in Montreal and was planning to renew the mortgage on it next year. Now, he wonders if he should sell and gift the proceeds to his sons. Keep reading FP Answers here to find out more.

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Today’s Posthaste was written by Gigi Suhanic with additional reporting from Financial Post staff and Bloomberg.

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