Ontario politics just had a shakeup. Here's an insider view of what it could mean for the Ford government

Ontario politics just had a shakeup. Here's an insider view of what it could mean for the Ford government

Key departure comes as high-profile Liberal jumps into leadership race

The departure of a prominent member of Premier Doug Ford’s cabinet and the arrival of a high-profile Liberal leadership candidate could be the latest signs of an increasingly competitive race in Ontario politics.

Early last week, Caroline Mulroney announced her resignation as Treasury Board president. Just hours later, former federal cabinet minister Navdeep Bains’ launched his long-rumoured bid to lead the provincial Liberal party.

It all comes as the Ontario Legislature wraps up its spring session, after a rocky sitting for the government which included the controversy over the purchase of a $29-million private jet.

“I think things are shifting in Ontario, ” said former Liberal cabinet minister John Milloy. “This should be a real warning sign for Doug Ford and the [PC] caucus. You can't just sit back and figure that you're going to win the next election with a massive majority. You're going to have some opposition.”

A number of polls last month put the PCs and Liberals in a statistical tie immediately following the jet controversy. A month later, a new Abacus Data survey suggests the Tories have regained some ground and moved back ahead of the Liberals in popular support, but seven in 10 respondents still say it’s time for a change in government.

Why Caroline Mulroney is set to resign from Ford's cabinet

What will Mulroney’s departure mean for the PCs?

Mulroney’s surprising resignation on Monday is a blow to Ford’s government.

During the PCs’ eight years in office, the 51-year-old lawyer has served in some of the government’s largest portfolios including as president of the Treasury Board, attorney general, minister of transportation and minister of francophone affairs.

Conservative strategist Mitch Heimpel said Mulroney is a respected member of Ford’s team.

“Caroline Mulroney is somebody whose competence was never in question, whose effectiveness was never in question, whose managerial and administrative skills were never in question,” he said. “And anytime a government loses somebody like that, it sucks.”

Mulroney did not respond directly on whether she was mulling a bid for the federal Conservative leadership, but said she was "ruling out any steps into elected politics over the next few years."

“I really am looking forward to spending more time with my family and my friends.”

But Mulroney is no stranger to leadership contests.

The daughter of former prime minister Brian Mulroney ran for Ontario PC leader in 2018 and finished third.

Milloy said the timing of Mulroney’s departure — a year after being re-elected and three years ahead of the next election — will raise questions about the government.

“Is she the first to see the writing on the wall that perhaps the government's in a bit of trouble …. and why not get out now before things start to get really bad?” said Milloy, director of the Centre for Public Ethics at Martin Luther University College.

How will Bains’ candidacy impact the Ontario Liberal leadership race?

Former federal industry minister Navdeep Bains made his candidacy for the Ontario Liberal leadership official this week. He is a former MP from Brampton who left federal politics in 2021 and has been working as a Rogers executive in recent years.

In a video launching his campaign, Bains said he’s running because the Ford government has broken a basic deal it made with Ontarians, that if you work hard you’ll get ahead.

“I’m running to lead the Ontario Liberal Party, to put the Ontario deal back on the table,” he said.

Liberal strategist Theresa Lubowitz said Bains is already perceived by some in the party as the front-runner. But he'll will have to withstand the marathon campaign with six months to go before the vote, she added.

“We never really know who the front-runner is until the final ballot,” she said. “He obviously has a lot of experience in national politics, but I do think national politics is very different than Ontario politics. It'll be a question of whether he can adapt to that.”

Several members of the PC cabinet took aim at Bains on social media the day he launched his campaign. Energy Minister Stephen Lecce criticized his tenure under former prime minister Justin Trudeau.

“We cannot afford Trudeau 2.0,” he wrote on X, formerly Twitter.

Heimpel said Bains is a formidable organizer and fundraiser, keys to winning the leadership, but will also carry baggage from his years in the federal government and his career in the private sector.

“He is a huge target for all the affordability vitriol that's out there in the public right now, and a bunch of the unpopular decisions made by a government that he was a key minister in,” he said.

So far, MPPs Lee Fairclough and Rob Cerjanic, and former political staff Dylan Marando have entered the race. Housing advocate Eric Lombardi has said he is exploring a possible run. Federal MP Nate Erskine-Smith had planned to run, but recently said his loss in a Scarborough nomination battle for the provincial party makes it less likely.

Lubowitz said she wouldn’t rule out Erskine-Smith’s candidacy, but his path will be challenging.

“I think this complicates that narrative because suddenly he has lost this very important race, and there's questions about whether he can win going forward,” she said.

What lies ahead at Queen’s Park?

This all comes as the provincial legislature heads into its last sitting week before adjourning for summer. Milloy said the Tories need to take the summer to reset their agenda after being dogged by controversies like the jet purchase, FOI changes and takeover of Billy Bishop airport.

“If I was advising him, I'd say think about what ordinary Ontarians are worried about, and think about a story or a narrative that you can tell them,” he said.

Heimpel said Ford’s team could focus on a few clear priorities and roll them out in a throne speech in the fall. Right now, the government isn’t doing enough to explain its vision to the public, he said.

“Give people an idea of what you're actually trying to do," he said. "Let them see the whole jigsaw puzzle."

Shawn Jeffords is CBC Toronto's Municipal Affairs Reporter, but is currently covering the Ontario Legislature. He has previously covered Queen's Park for The Canadian Press. You can reach him by emailing shawn.jeffords@cbc.ca.