Ontario Liberal leadership race enters new phase

Ontario Liberal leadership race enters new phase

Voter sign-up deadline is today at 6 p.m.

Ontario's Liberal leadership race shifts into a new phase Monday as the party locks in its eligible voters' list and candidates begin a charm offensive to win their support ahead of the November convention.

But party strategists and insiders say the race has thus far struggled to break through to Ontarians as the trade war with the U.S. once again dominates the news cycle and allows Premier Doug Ford to play to his strengths.

But Monday’s deadline to cast a ballot for the next party leader is Monday at 6 p.m. Those party insiders say it's a pivotal moment in the race where candidates see if the work they’ve done for months criss-crossing the province has paid off.

"Post-membership deadline, this is the moment where it's about persuasion," said Liberal strategist Theresa Lubowitz. "You know who the membership block is that's able to vote, and you're trying to convince as many of them as possible to join your side in this race."

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The provincial Liberals are in the midst of their third leadership race since 2020. Former leader Bonnie Crombie resigned last fall after receiving 57 per cent support in the mandatory review of delegates at a party gathering in Toronto. That came months after the party finished a disappointing third in seat count in the snap provincial election which saw Premier Doug Ford cruise to a majority government.

But the Liberals made gains under Crombie, increasing their share of the popular vote and winning enough seats to regain official party status, and the resources that come with it.

The leadership contest to replace her has drawn a field of five contenders: former federal cabinet minister Navdeep Bains, MPPs Stephanie Bowman and Lee Fairclough, housing advocate Eric Lombardi, and policy advisor Dylan Marando.

The membership cutoff Monday does not include student campus clubs, which have another two weeks to sign up members. It’s not immediately clear if the party will release the number of registered members after the deadline, but in the past that reveal has then prompted individual campaigns to claim their share of the figures in a bid to assert their standing in the race.

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"There's a little gamesmanship because it is all about showing, 'Hey, we have the momentum, we're the front runner,'" said Lubowitz, owner of Lightbulb Narrative.

"If you have been the front runner throughout the race, it's really, really important that you show so much dominance that people think, well, this is already over."

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The party will use a ranked ballot system to select its new leader. Members rank the contenders by preference and those votes are tallied by riding. Each riding is worth 100 points and they're divided based on the candidates' level of support in each riding.

If no candidate gets more than 50 per cent support on the first ballot, the last-place candidate is eliminated and a second ballot is counted. The rounds continue until the winner receives majority support.

Liberal strategist Blue Knox said the candidates general outreach will narrow focus to the pool of active voters.

"Their campaigning is really going to be focused on all the people who've been signed up, even by other candidates, to try and persuade them, even if not marking them first on their ballot, to rank them second or further down on their ballot," Knox said.

The party has held one debate and plans others, but dates have not been set. Knox said she expects the pace of the campaign to pick up post-Labour Day. But whoever wins the leadership is in for years of difficult work continuing to rebuild a party that has been struggling since its defeat at the hands of the Progressive Conservatives in 2018, she added.

"The message we needed to take away from the last provincial election is that you know what voters didn't see us as the credible alternative to the Ford Conservatives," Knox said. "We need to change, we need to do better."

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Party strategist Charles Bird said the race, which started in earnest in February, is a marathon and some party members feel fatigued by having to conduct another leadership contest. That’s made it hard to build any momentum or break through the news cycle for that reason, he said.

"This is the third Liberal leadership in less than six years, so it's getting a bit old," said Bird, a principal at Earnscliffe Strategies.

"It’s very difficult for the candidates in the Ontario Liberal leadership race to really find that angle that will enable them to break through."

Bird said he’ll be watching to see how the candidates make progress in the final weeks of the race.

"What I'll really be looking for is who is getting better, whose message is getting sharper, who is sounding more confident, who is sounding like they are getting ready to assume the leadership of the party," he said.

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Lubowitz said she’s hopeful that the candidates will start to unveil more policy, something she feels the contest has been a bit light on up to this point.

"I think the Liberals in this race actually have to offer a real clear alternative to the path we've been on as a province, one that actually makes people's lives better," she said. "And part of that is policy, part of that is tone, part of that is choosing the right person to lead."

Interim Liberal Leader John Fraser said while the race might not be in the headlines every day, the candidates are all contributing to a broader, more difficult rebuild of the party.

"You don't get headlines from talking to people," he said. "You don't get headlines from knocking on somebody's doors or making a call or finding someone to help you organize to put on your team, those aren't headline grabbing … It's a build phase for the candidates. It's a build phase for our party.

Party members will vote online from Nov. 9 to 20. The new leader will be announced at an event on Nov. 21.

Shawn Jeffords is a Provincial Affairs Reporter covering Queen's Park for CBC Toronto. He has previously covered Toronto City Hall for CBC and the Ontario Legislature for The Canadian Press. You can reach him by emailing shawn.jeffords@cbc.ca.