Mark Carney shifts his tone on U.S. trade tensions

Mark Carney shifts his tone on U.S. trade tensions — and Canadians with TFSAs and RRSPs should pay attention

Trade wars tend to build in the background — then move fast. Veteran Canadian investors, scarred by tariff skirmishes within the past decade, know that the economic relationship between Canada and the United States can turn on a dime.

Now there’s a deadline on that uncertainty. On July 1, 2026, Canada, the United States and Mexico must decide whether to renew the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (1) (CUSMA) — the trade deal that, as of 2023, governs over $1.93 trillion in annual commerce between the three countries. For Canadians, this is more than a distant policy headline: It’s the single most historic trade decision in a generation, affecting jobs, supply chains, household prices and investment portfolios.

Prime Minister Mark Carney has placed himself at the centre of the story, and his message to the U.S. — along with its sentiment — has shifted.

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Earlier this year, Carney argued that Canada’s deep economic integration with the U.S. had become a liability, and called for “middle powers” to unite. However, when speaking at the Economic Club (2) of New York on May 28, 2026, he struck a very different tone, declaring: “‘Canada Strong’ will help make America great again.”

“While Canada and the United States have had our differences over the centuries, we have always worked and eventually worked through them because we share values and our common interests run deep,” Carney said.

The shift wasn’t accidental. Fraser Institute Senior Fellow Jock Finlayson (3), who also serves as chief economist at the Independent Contractors and Businesses Association (ICBA), says Canada’s push to reduce its reliance on U.S. markets has only made limited progress — the trade relationship, he noted, is “sticky.”

And the trade structure is the reason for that stickiness. Canada sends roughly three-quarters of its exports to the United States — Statistics Canada data for 2024 (4) puts the figure at 75.9% of all domestic exports. Carney noted that Canada is America’s single largest export customer, and that approximately 70% of Canadian exports (5) serve as inputs for American-made goods, including cars, homes, aircraft and machinery.