Jobs in occupations most exposed to AI increased by 4%: Chicago Fed

The Chicago Fed research aligns with other recent studies challenging widespread concerns that AI will lead to sweeping payroll cuts across a full range of occupations.

“Dueling macroeconomic analyses from market players paint a future that is, by turns, dystopic or utopic,” the researchers said.

“Given these existential questions, to say nothing about the very real concerns around job displacement, it is not surprising that 50% of Americans are more concerned than excited about the increased use of AI,” they said.

Fears of job loss have flared in the U.S. since the introduction of ChatGPT in November 2022, the Yale Budget Lab said in a study released in October.

“Surveys show widespread public anxiety about AI’s potential for job losses,” according to the Yale Budget Lab.

Yet the International Labor Organization, citing research from seven countries including the U.S., U.K., Germany and South Korea, said in a study released in May that “there is little evidence so far of large-scale job losses directly attributable to GenAI.”

Instead, “early signals point to important adjustments in task demand, hiring patterns and the structure of employment, particularly in occupations heavily reliant on routine cognitive tasks,” the ILO said.

Research from China indicates that companies adopting AI tend to reorganize employees rather than lay them off, the ILO said.

“This evidence reinforces the view that GenAI affects labor demand by reshaping task bundles and skill requirements rather than by eliminating entire occupations,” the ILO said.

Still, the adoption of AI is not hazard-free, according to the ILO.

“The main risks lie in growing inequalities, the erosion of employment opportunities for younger workers, and the reshaping of how work is organized, with implications for coordination, worker autonomy and job quality,” the ILO said.

So far disruption to the labor market from AI has been negligible, the Yale Budget Lab said in a study that predated the Chicago Fed’s findings.

“Overall, our metrics indicate that the broader labor market has not experienced a discernible disruption since ChatGPT’s release 33 months ago, undercutting fears that AI automation is currently eroding the demand for cognitive labor across the economy,” the Yale Budget Lab said.

“While this finding may contradict the most alarming headlines, it is not surprising given past precedents,” the Yale Budget Lab said, noting that workplace disruption from computers and other technologies played out over decades rather than over months or years.

In short, it is too soon to determine the degree of disruption to jobs from AI, Yale Budget Lab researchers said.

“While anxiety over the effects of AI on today’s labor market is widespread, our data suggests it remains largely speculative,” they said.

“The picture of AI’s impact on the labor market that emerges from our data is one that largely reflects stability,” the researchers said, adding “it is too soon to tell how disruptive the technology will be to jobs.”