How will each state be affected by Canada’s tariff retaliation?

How will each state be affected by Canada’s tariff retaliation?

While some swing states may be hit, Democratic strongholds are not spared

Canada’s forthcoming counter-tariffs against the United States are aiming to inflict economic damage on U.S. regions that are politically important to President Donald Trump, especially given the looming American midterm elections in November.

Canada is "targeting products that will target states in the U.S. And so we’re being wise and strategic to put political pressure," Industry Minister Mélanie Joly said on Tuesday.

Canadian trade data from 2025 shows that around $3 billion worth of imports from Ohio are exposed to Canada’s countermeasures, the most of any state. That represents about 12 per cent of our total imports from the state.

The Ohio Senate seat up for election this cycle, currently held by a Republican, is considered in play, along with seats in the House.

However, when looking at the figures this way, it’s not just Trump’s most politically vulnerable areas that’ll be hit. For example, $2.7 billion worth of goods from Illinois and $2.3 billion from Pennsylvania will also be subject to our countermeasures, according to Canada's domestic 2025 trade data.

Illinois is considered safe for Democrats in the current Senate race, while Pennsylvania has no Senate race this cycle.

While it's easy to look at Canada's actions through the prism of politics, there are more factors to consider, given how much larger the American economy is compared to Canada's.

"You have to be very conscious of limiting self harm against our own importers and exporters," said Brian Clow, who was chief of staff to International Trade Minister Chrystia Freeland during Canada's last tariff war with the U.S. and chief adviser to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on Canada-U.S. relations.

The art of inflicting pain: How to select targets for Canada's counter-tariffs

A day after releasing its tariff list, Canada began making revisions, removing seafood and fish products worth about $1 billion. These tariffs would have hit the state of Maine the hardest.

If we look at the percentage of import values affected by state, we see that Arkansas, reliably Republican, will take a large hit on things like steel beams and paper products. While a relatively small trade market, about 20 per cent of Canada's imports from Arkansas are now subject to Canada's countermeasures.

About 17 per cent of imports from Wisconsin will also get more expensive. Affected items include facial tissues, toilet paper and construction equipment parts.

What are the highest value items targeted from the big trading states?

Nearly $400 million worth of construction equipment parts were imported from Illinois last year. We also imported another $226 million worth of farm equipment. Those items will be tariffed at 15 per cent. Farm equipment giant John Deere is based in Moline, Ill.

Networking equipment from the U.S. will also be tariffed at 50 per cent, a direct response to a portion of Trump's tariffs brought in last week against Canada. We imported about $271 million worth of it from California, a deep blue state. And railway coaches and diesel-electric locomotives are also targeted with a 25 per cent levy. Siemens operates a large manufacturing facility in the state.

Canada has also set its sights on motorcycles with larger engines. In 2025, we brought in about $127 million worth of them from Pennsylvania, home to Harley-Davidson manufacturing. Pennsylvanians aren’t headed to polls to pick a senator this year, but three House seats are considered in play.

How will the new tariffs hit Canada's economy?

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Republicans, currently in control of both congressional chambers, are headed into the November midterms to face voters who generally do not like how the president has been handling inflation and high prices, according to polling, which could be further exacerbated by the trade war against Canada.

Canada’s counter-tariffs are set to come into effect on Sept. 8 in response to Trump’s 50 per cent tariffs that began this past weekend.

Producer, data visualizations and graphics

Graeme Bruce is a producer for CBC News, based in Ottawa. Previously, he was a digital editor at the Winnipeg Free Press. Find him on Twitter @graemebruce_ and reach him by email at graeme.bruce@cbc.ca.