How high inflation is hurting Trump's Republicans in U.S. midterm campaign

How high inflation is hurting Trump's Republicans in U.S. midterm campaign

With less than 3 weeks until election day, gas and diesel prices show no signs of falling

For nearly a year, U.S. President Donald Trump has been trying to persuade voters not to get riled up over rising prices.

Trump has brushed off concerns about affordability as a "con job by Democrats," insisted consumer prices had fallen during his term when they'd actually risen, and repeatedly claimed the costs of gas and diesel — up sharply after he launched the war against Iran — would start falling soon.

Numerous polls suggest voters aren't buying Trump's sales pitch, with respondents giving him low marks on the cost of living.

On average, more than 70 per cent of American respondents in recent polls disapprove of Trump's handling of inflation, according to Silver Bulletin, which aggregates public polling.

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The latest inflation data won't make things any better for Trump and his Republican Party as they try to maintain control of U.S. Congress in the midterm elections on Nov. 3, less than three weeks from now.

The consumer price index was up 3.7 per cent in September compared with the previous year, driven largely by increases in the prices of fuel and clothing, the U.S. Department of Labour reported on Wednesday.

Inflation top of mind for voters ahead of U.S. midterms

Polling indicates that the economy is the top issue for voters across the U.S. heading into the midterms, says Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling Center in Boston.

Drill down further into the data, and he says it's the cost of living — rather than jobs or taxes — underlying those concerns about the economy.

"It looks like it's just everyday expenses that are beginning to pile up and people are concerned about being able to afford," Kimball told CBC News.

"It's hard to imagine in the next three weeks there'll be a solution to the gas price or the other costs of living associated with that," he said.

Trump flew to Wasilla, Alaska, Tuesday to hold a campaign rally at a hockey rink. (Alex Brandon/The Associated Press)

The political impact can be mapped out through Trump's recent travels across the U.S. as he tries to boost Republicans' chances of winning U.S. Senate seats.

In the past two weeks, Trump has flown to a series of previously reliably red states, including Alaska, Kansas, Ohio and Texas, all of which he won by double digits in the 2024 presidential election.

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Tim Malloy, polling analyst with the Quinnipiac University Poll in Hamden, Conn., describes Trump's travels as "a last mad dash" to try to shore up Republican candidates who should not have been in jeopardy during the midterms but are now at risk of losing largely because of cost of living issues.

"What Hail Mary pass or home run can you hit at this point if you're the Republicans? I don't know. It's really, really late in the day," Malloy told CBC News.

He says gas prices are the predominant concern showing up in polling and voters are pinning the blame on Trump.

"All of that is tied into the fact that the president said the war would be over very quickly," Malloy said. "The president has not lived up to the promise he made to Americans, and they're kind of fed up and the midterms are coming."

Outside a supermarket in Martinsburg, W.Va., Juliana Kaiser said she's started baking her own bread, making soup stocks and limiting her driving to save costs. She says rising prices will be a factor she keeps in mind when voting in the upcoming U.S. midterms. (Jonathan Austin/CBC)

In the staunchly Republican community of Martinsburg, W.Va., on Wednesday, people told CBC News that they're feeling the price pinch.

"It's hard to even do grocery shopping anymore. I've had to really survive off of food pantries," said Christalyn Levy, a cashier in a local thrift store. "Literally I pay my rent, and I have nothing left."

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Outside a nearby supermarket, Juliana Kaiser said she now tries to cut costs by baking her own bread and reducing her gas consumption.

"I've definitely limited the amount of travelling that we do, and I try to condense my [shopping] trips into all one big loop," she said, adding that rising prices will be on her mind when she votes in the midterms.

Mike Crawley is a correspondent for CBC News, based in Washington. He began his career as a newspaper reporter in B.C., spent six years as a freelance journalist in various parts of Africa, then joined the CBC in 2005. Mike reported on Ontario politics for 15 years. He was born and raised in Saint John, N.B.