Could the mayor's tune on RTO cost him votes?

Dear Public Service Confidential,

Despite denying that he did not input into the federal government's return to work policy for public servants, Ottawa's Mayor is a strong proponent of the policy citing it as a means to boost the economy of the city's core.

To what extent do you think his support of this policy will have on his own support from voters in the suburbs and rural communities which have benefited from having their residents work from home?

These communities have an equally valid reason for wanting to support their local businesses.

Could the mayor's tune on RTO cost him votes among his base?

The short answer is I don't think so.

There are two main reasons in my view.

The first is that his support for the federal RTO policy is in line with what is happening across most jurisdictions.

The RTO tide is bigger and broader than the mayor. One can argue whether the right place to land on the RTO debate is that employees return to the office for 3 or 4 days a week, but the broader trend to mandate civil servants back to the office, across multiple jurisdictions, is clear. Civil servants are returning to the office for the majority of the work week, and broader public opinion appears to support this.

This does not surprise me. Before I retired, and as early as 2022, I advised my staff that we would ultimately have to return to the office. It was not well-received at the time, but the writing was already on the proverbial wall when you witnessed and thought about the downstream economic impact of the work at home and hybrid model on the urban core. I also chuckled when I heard the official line that RTO was all about teamwork and the work environment, and that the decisions associated with RTO were not being influenced by the concerns of municipal and federal political leaders.

In the spirit of openness on the issue, my experience is that most executives and more senior level staff are more productive and effective working at the office than at home. In my case, I found I was able to get more done in the margins, between meetings, in elevators, and walking the floor. I was also more effective reading people and body language when at the office. Fundamentally, the in-office dynamic better enabled my ability to solve multiple problems with quick conversations rather than having to book one meeting at a time via MS Teams.

I also believe that some employees in some job types are undoubtedly happier and more productive working from home. Further, there are tangible and significant benefits from hybrid work reducing traffic congestion and gas fumes from commuters.

Regardless, the unfortunate reality is that our urban centres, infrastructure, and transportation systems are all built and wired around the traditional "work at the office" model. The net economic result is that the hybrid model has had a significant and negative impact on the urban core, as well as on revenues for OC Transpo (albeit OC Transpo also has broader issues).

Further, while suburban communities have an equally valid reason for wanting support for their local businesses, suburban communities do not have the same economies of scale, and revenue dependency, associated with the concentration of federal employees in Ottawa's urban centre.

The second reason I don't think the federal RTO policy will impact the upcoming municipal election is that the issue is not the Mayoral candidates' job to champion. The Office of the Mayor has no authority on this one. Federal return to work (RTO) policy is for the federal government and Treasury Board, as the federal employer, to set.

I also can't speak for suburban voters or the polling data, but I personally prefer political leaders to stay in their lane and focus their platform, priorities and commitments on issues where they can actually make a difference (and then deliver on the commitments that they do make). For the Mayor's race, that means focusing on things like transit, community safety and policing, making it easier for developers to build housing, and keeping future municipal tax increases reasonable. I don't see swimming against the current on federal RTO policy as a decisive factor on this list.

Scott Taymun is a former federal executive who served more than 30 years across seven departments. He served as the chief of staff to the clerk of the Privy Council and helped design and implement the public sector management reforms that followed the sponsorship scandal in the early 2000s. He retired from the public service in October 2023.

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Public Service Confidential is an advice column, written for the Ottawa Citizen by guest contributors Scott Taymun, Yazmine Laroche, Daniel Quan-Watson, Victoria De La Ronde and Chris Aylward. The information provided in this series is not legal advice and should not be construed as legal advice.

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