Could Ford's fight with Trump swing key byelections to the PCs? Experts weigh in

Could Ford's fight with Trump swing key byelections to the PCs? Experts weigh in

Bump in Ford approvals could help Tories gain ground in close races

After months on his political backfoot, Doug Ford was on the offensive this week, squaring off with Donald Trump in a war of words.

Political analysts and experts say the fight with the mercurial U.S. president plays to the premier's strengths and has contributed to a spike in his approvals just ahead of three key provincial byelections this week.

Ford traded insults with Trump earlier this week after trade talks between American and Canadian negotiators broke down. On Monday, Trump compared the premier to his late brother, former Toronto mayor Rob Ford, calling him less charismatic, intelligent and impressive. He also labeled him a “flunky” of Prime Minister Mark Carney.

Ford swung back, blasting Trump as the “king of bankruptcies” and a “bully.”

“I've been in this game a lot longer than he has, I got skin on me like an alligator, and you think an insult from him hurts me?” Ford reacted.

Ford, Trump exchange insults over collapsed trade talks

Past fights with Trump a political boon for Ford

But being in conflict with Trump has been a winning formula for the premier. It helped him cruise to a third straight majority government win during the snap election in early 2025. This week, his personal approvals jumped by 12 points and his PCs moved into the lead in a Liaison Strategies opinion survey, taken on the same day he sparred with the president.

On Thursday, voters in Scarborough Southwest, York-Simcoe and Hamilton East–Stoney Creek will go to the polls to select new MPPs.

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York-Simcoe, north of Toronto, has been a Tory stronghold since the district was created in 2007. The PCs have never won the riding with less than 40 per cent of the vote in the past six elections.

But the battles in both Scarborough Southwest and Hamilton East-Stoney Creek are believed to be close, and experts say Ford’s fight with Trump could drive up support for the PCs.

“I think it will help immeasurably,” said former Liberal cabinet minister John Milloy. “(Voters) are going to look at that ballot and the person who's most associated with the anti-Trump sentiment right now is Doug Ford. So this could help.”

'Ford desperately needed a channel changer': strategist

Milloy, who is now director of the Centre for Public Ethics at Martin Luther University College, said voter turnout for byelections is traditionally low. But Ford has tapped into simmering public anger at Trump and people are looking for outlets to vent that frustration.

Casting a ballot in the byelections could be one way to channel those emotions, Milloy said.

“I think it's very clever of him and I think it will motivate people to come out and vote, which is huge,” he said. “That's a big part of it. Just getting people to get off the couch.”

NDP strategist Erin Morrison said the Official Opposition has been hard at work in both Scarborough and Hamilton in an effort to win those byelections. The PCs have been mired in a series of controversies for months, including the purchase and sale of a private jet, an expense scandal and allegedly spying on a former opposition leader while she was on vacation.

“Ford desperately needed a channel changer — and the fact that he got one called Trump may help him in Hamilton East—Stoney Creek and Scarborough South West,” said Morrison, a vice-president at Texture Communications.

She believes the NDP are leading in both ridings, but will now have to work hard to get their vote out.

Fight with Trump plays to Ford's strengths; Duncan says

Conservative strategist Sam Duncan said the fight with Trump plays to the premier’s strengths. And his actions and rhetoric over the last week have reminded voters why they sent him back to to Queen’s Park with another majority government, he said.

“It's always been a strength of (Ford’s) to really understand how people are feeling, and I think he has met the moment emotionally where Ontarians and a lot of Canadians, frankly, feel from a rhetoric standpoint,” he said.

Duncan, who is a vice-president with Wellington Advocacy, said he doesn’t think Ford’s fight with Trump will help in the Scarborough byelection because he sees that as a race between the Liberals and NDP.

But in Hamilton, where the Tories took the riding from the New Democrats in 2022, it could make a difference, he said.

“Before this week I would have said it was going to be a toss-up but now I believe it is going to be solidly PC,” he said.

McMaster University political science professor Peter Graefe said the war of words with Trump could help improve the perception of Ford’s government overall, and that should bolster the PCs' vote share in the byelections. But he cautions against over-estimating the impact of the fight.

“In a place like Hamilton East, where the steel tariffs are of particular concern, his promises to protect the province may resonate a bit more,” he said. “But overall, I think the impact will be relatively marginal.”

Shawn Jeffords is a Provincial Affairs Reporter covering Queen's Park for CBC Toronto. He has previously covered Toronto City Hall for CBC and the Ontario Legislature for The Canadian Press. You can reach him by emailing shawn.jeffords@cbc.ca.