Conservatives search for hope amid Mark Carney's tide of good fortune, and find only stoicism

OTTAWA AND PENTICTON, B.C. — As the moon circles Earth, its gravitational pull moves the oceans back and forth, creating the cycle of high and low tides.

A similar law of physics applies to Canadian politics.

As U.S. President Donald Trump spins himself in and out of the news cycle, Liberal party poll numbers move up and down in accordance with the president’s shifting gravitational force. The latest breakdown of trade talks in late August, and the barrage of insults from Washington that followed, predictably delivered another “Trump bump” for Prime Minister Mark Carney who has positioned himself, and is widely perceived as, Canada’s most reliable defender.

That same cycle has been savage for Conservatives, who gathered as a caucus in B.C.’s Okanagan region this week, and are once again relegated to the sidelines while forces outside the party’s control manage its fate.

In a sign that people inside the party may be moving through the stages of grief since losing the 2025 election, Conservative MPs seemed more willing to acknowledge the steep hill they must climb, with their party and their leader trailing Carney and the Liberals by significant spreads.

“The popularity of Mark Carney is what it is,” said Bob Zimmer, who represents the northern B.C. riding of Prince George–Peace River–Northern Rockies, outside the party’s caucus retreat in Penticton, B.C.

Conservatives popularity is now in the low 30 per cents, according to polling aggregators. Having dipped below the psychologically important 30-point mark in a few single polls this year, even the Tory leadership has to admit that things don’t look rosy for the Conservative party these days.

“This is not the position we want to be in at this juncture,” said Conservative deputy leader Melissa Lantsman, to reporters gathered at the caucus meeting.

Most Conservative strategists say that in the current environment, with Carney’s stature and popularity booming and Trump’s belligerence giving the prime minister a new boost every few months, it’s unlikely that the party will be able to close the gap with the Liberals anytime soon.

Trump is scheduled to depart the Oval Office in January 2029, which many Tories will have circled in their calendars. But that means the party is looking down the barrel of a gruelling couple of years. The party’s braintrust either needs to reverse Carney’s advantage on the trade war or grind out the rest of Trump’s term when it, hopefully, goes away.

“Hanging on for two years and hoping things get better, that’s not easy, right?” said Dan Robertson, a former chief strategist for the Conservative party. “You’re basically conceding that your strategy is just hope. And that’s a pretty poor basis for a strategy.”

Even the most optimistic Conservative strategists don’t see a clear path to any big gains for the party soon. Carney is simply too popular right now. And, despite the prayers of Tories across the country, the conflict with Trump hasn’t become any less salient in Canada since the April 2025 election, when Liberals successfully sold their leader as the best man to fight it.