Canadians Weigh the Potential Impact of Alberta and Quebec Independence

Talk of provincial independence has resurfaced in different parts of the country, raising questions about national unity, economic impact, and how Canadians would respond if Alberta or Quebec were to leave Confederation.

Leger’s latest survey explores how closely Canadians are following these discussions, which province they believe would have the greater impact on Canada if it became independent, and whether residents would stay or consider moving if their province were to leave the country.

Alberta Referendum Discussions Are Drawing More Attention

Canadians are more likely to say they are closely following news about a potential Alberta independence referendum than a potential Quebec referendum. Overall, 55% say they are closely following news about a possible Alberta referendum, compared to 38% for Quebec. Attention is especially high in the provinces most directly involved: 84% of Albertans are closely following news about a potential Alberta referendum, while 66% of Quebecers say the same about a potential Quebec referendum.

For broader context, readers can explore the Government of Canada’s overview of Canada’s provinces and territories, as well as The Canadian Encyclopedia’s backgrounder on Confederation, which outlines the formation of Canada’s federal union.

Canadians See Economic, Identity, and Personal Stakes Differently

Canadians do not view the potential impact of Alberta and Quebec independence in the same way across every measure. Alberta is more often seen as the province whose departure would have the greater negative impact on Canada’s economy, while 54% say either province leaving would be equally damaging to Canada’s national identity.

These findings also echo long-standing conversations about regional identity, economic influence, and Canada’s federal system, from the 1995 Quebec referendum to Alberta’s own history within Confederation. Among Quebecers and Albertans, 50% say they would continue living in their province if it became independent, suggesting that while independence remains a political question, many residents also view it through a practical, personal lens.

Download the full report to explore Canadians’ views on provincial independence, national unity, and the potential impact of Quebec or Alberta leaving Canada.

This online survey was conducted among 1,532 Canadians aged 18 or older from May 29 to June 1, 2026, using Leger’s LEO online panel. Results were weighted by age, gender, mother tongue, region, education, and presence of children in the household. For comparison purposes, a probability sample of this size would have a margin of error of ±2.50%, 19 times out of 20.