Byelection wins, personal relationships influence Ford cabinet shuffle, insiders say

Critics say premier has missed warning signs, supporters say he values 'personal bond' with ministers

Two byelection victories and a desire to manage relationships within his own party may be part of the reason why Premier Doug Ford tweaked his cabinet this week and opted against wholesale change, say political insiders.

Ford pulled the trigger on a cabinet shuffle this week after months of speculation that he would change his front bench at Queen’s Park. But political strategists say the move amounts to a small re-alignment of his team and signals that Ford is largely content with the direction of his government despite a bumpy spring and summer when he faced a number of controversies.

On Thursday, Ford acknowledged he had been contemplating the move for some time and found it difficult.

"I put a lot of thought into it, and I think for any premier, myself, in the future or in the past, I think the toughest position you're in is when you have to pick and choose who's going to be in cabinet," he told reporters.

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The premier said he made the decision to shift nine of his 37 ministers to get a “fresh outlook, a fresh start” for some ministries.

Conservative strategist Sam Duncan said the shuffle suggests Ford has taken his recent byelection wins in Hamilton East-Stoney Creek and York Simcoe as a sign that a “pragmatic recalibration” was needed more than wholesale change.

The government's "not really looking to change,” said Duncan, who is vice-president at Wellington Advocacy and once worked in Ford’s office.

“And despite some of the fluctuations in the polls, they believe their approach, their plan, the way they're conducting themselves as the government, is the right way.”

The premier’s polling in recent months has been volatile.

His Progressive Conservatives and the Ontario Liberals swapped spots in the lead in some opinion surveys this spring and summer after Ford faced a series of controversies including the purchase and sale of a private jet, an expense scandal and allegedly spying on a former opposition leader while she was on vacation.

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But late last month, the premier’s personal approvals jumped by 12 points and his PCs moved into the lead in a Liaison Strategies opinion survey, taken on the same day he traded insults with U.S. President Donald Trump.

Ford said Thursday the shuffle puts Ontario on long-term footing to fight Trump and his trade war. Kinga Surma will take over at Treasury Board. But the rest of cabinet’s other major posts, including health, education, finance, remained unchanged while smaller posts, including labour, infrastructure and agriculture were shuffled.

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NDP strategist Erin Morrison said she thinks Ford has missed warning signs from the public and the small shuffle is "hubris" on his part.

“Working folks look at the luxury jet he bought, the lobster dinners his MPPs have been putting on the public dime, and they might be thinking, ‘Yeah, my paychecks haven't even kept up with the cost of living, so time for you to stop living high on the hog’,” Morrison said.

“This could come back to bite him,” she said of the cabinet shuffle.

Ford sticking with Piccini 'a risk,' former Liberal minister

Former Liberal cabinet minister John Milloy said Ford is taking a risk by keeping embattled minister David Piccini in a prominent cabinet role. The previous labour minister moves to the infrastructure portfolio, a key ministry in a government with an ambitious building agenda.

Piccini remains under investigation by the integrity commissioner after the province’s auditor general raised questions about his handling of the $2.5-billion Skills Development Fund. Ford has defended Piccini and the success of the fund.

“(Piccini) is going to be settling into a new role, a relatively high-profile role, and in the midst of it, there could be a report which really puts him in a poor light,” said Milloy, who is now director of the Centre for Public Ethics at Martin Luther University College.

“The last thing the premier wants to do is to go back and have another shuffle, or to once again defend the same minister,” he added.

Duncan said Piccini’s move in cabinet is a vote of confidence in him from Ford.

“Infrastructure is a huge portfolio ... it signals a level of support that the premier has in Minister Piccini,” he said.

Critics question 'ridiculous' size of Ford's cabinet

Milloy said the sheer size of the cabinet undermines Ford’s insistence that this is the team best suited to fight the trade war. Traditionally, “war cabinets” appointed to deal with a crisis are smaller and centralize decision-making, putting it in the hands of the premier and a few trusted ministers, he said.

Ford swept to power in 2018 promising to run a leaner government, and initially named a cabinet with 21 members. But the membership in his cabinet has risen over time.

“This has become ridiculous, where virtually every Conservative in the legislature is either a cabinet minister or a parliamentary assistant,” he said. “I was part of very large cabinets, and it doesn't always work that well to have dozens and dozens of different voices around the table if you want to get something done.”

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Duncan said the size of the cabinet speaks to the value Ford places in having a personal bond with his ministers, more than fearing he'll bruise egos if he leaves someone out.

But Milloy said internal politics are always at play during cabinet shuffles where MPPs jockey for promotions, pay hikes and increased profiles.

In the end, Ford may want to keep as many incumbents as possible happy — and motivated to run again — despite the next provincial election being years away.

“By giving them additional roles, responsibilities, a bit of status, that may make it a little bit more attractive for them to stay,” he said.

Shawn Jeffords is a Provincial Affairs Reporter covering Queen's Park for CBC Toronto. He has previously covered Toronto City Hall for CBC and the Ontario Legislature for The Canadian Press. You can reach him by emailing shawn.jeffords@cbc.ca.

-with files from The Canadian Press.