Arctic militarization is a 'direct threat' to Russia, Kremlin says

Arctic militarization is a 'direct threat' to Russia, Kremlin says

More military in the North could lead to unintended confrontation, former Canadian ambassador says

As NATO countries — including Canada — ramp up their Arctic defense spending, one senior Kremlin official says Russia feels threatened by the more militarized region.

“Such military activity in the Far North poses a direct threat to Russia’s security,” said Russia’s foreign affairs minister Sergei Lavrov in an essay published Monday on his department's website.

“It also increases the risk of incidents that could trigger an armed confrontation with potentially disastrous consequences.”

For decades the Arctic was considered a region of low international tensions, but things have changed, and Lavrov’s essay is just one of the latest signs of that, said Alison LeClaire, former Canadian ambassador to Russia and a onetime Senior Arctic Official at the intergovernmental Arctic Council.

“The Arctic world that we all recognize is becoming more competitive. I would take it as a kind of a signal that it is not to our advantage not to be cooperating with them," LeClaire said of Lavrov’s letter.

‘Qualified no’ on potential military threat from Russia

In 1987, Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev called the Arctic a “peace and co-operation zone.” But as the relationship between Russia and Western countries soured over the years, Arctic geopolitics has changed as well.

In a 2023 Senate report titled Arctic Security Under Threat, Canadian Armed Forces Maj.-Gen. Michael Wright said Russia and China pose the most significant threat to Canada’s interests in the Arctic.

As well, the Russian intelligence services have been conducting “foreign interference activities” in Canada’s Arctic, according to a 2024 report by CSIS.

But does Russia pose a military threat to Canada?

“I think my short answer would be a qualified no,” LeClaire said.

The Russian Arctic accounts for at least 10 per cent of the country's GDP with over 2.5 million Russians living there. With that, LeClaire says, the Kremlin wouldn’t want to disrupt the peace in the region.

“They have their Northern Fleet up there. They have a lot of assets up there. So military conflict in the Arctic would not be in their view, in their interest.”

Billions in Arctic defense could lead to 'accidental conflict'

In 2024, the Canadian government announced it would spend $81 billion on Arctic defence over 20 years. Since then, the government announced $32 billion towards upgrades to northern air force facilities and $2.7 billion for seven Arctic operational support hubs and nodes.

As for Russia, the country established 14 airfields, six military bases, refurbished 16 Soviet-era deepwater ports, and established 10 border posts in the Arctic from 2014 to 2019, according to the Arctic Institute, a U.S.-based think tank.

With a more militarized Arctic there is a higher chance of unintended incidents in the region, LeClaire said.

“I think that the warning that they issue directed at NATO and NATO countries is that with more activity you have a higher risk of accidental conflict.”

Arty Sarkisian is a reporter with CBC North in Iqaluit. You can reach him at arty.sarkisian@cbc.ca.