A new Barrhaven? Study proposes massive shift to boundary limiting sprawl

A new Barrhaven? Study proposes massive shift to boundary limiting sprawl

City-commissioned study recommends opening 2,740 hectares of greenfield land to suburban development

In the face of ballooning population forecasts, the City of Ottawa commissioned a study that recommended opening up an area of rural land almost the size of Barrhaven to suburban development.

The draft study by Toronto-based Hemson Consulting was a crucial step in the city's growth management process. It calculated how much land is needed to accommodate future residents and how far the city should expand the boundary that limits sprawl.

After studying five options, Hemson said "the most balanced and pragmatic approach" is adding 2,740 hectares — or 27.4 square kilometres — to the supply of greenfield residential land set aside for new neighbourhoods.

It made no recommendation about which land areas would be included, but the total amounts to more than 3,800 standard-size soccer fields.

The study was supposed to go to a council committee this April, but that meeting was called off amid wide-ranging provincial planning changes. A final decision has been deferred until early next year, after this fall's municipal election.

Marcia Wallace, the city's general manager of planning, development and building services, told CBC in an email that the city posted draft technical reports to a website devoted to public consultation. That happened in May, but it was not widely reported at the time.

Wallace said there will be further analysis and public input before city council makes a decision on how far the boundary should expand — or even whether it should expand at all. She called the Hemson study "technical work" and said it doesn't amount to a recommendation by city staff.

But if approved, Hemson's recommendation to add 2,740 hectares would be more than double the area from the last time the urban boundary expanded.

In 2020, council added 1,281 hectares around the city’s suburban fringe in a move that triggered debate about the costs of sprawl. That includes the new Tewin community planned for southeast Ottawa.

But Hemson says that land now isn't nearly enough. The current stock of greenfield land can only accommodate about 93,000 homes, the study says, and it forecasts that Ottawa will need many, many more.

Six years ago, the city assumed that Ottawa’s population would grow to 1.4 million by 2046. But a new provincial forecast is much higher. It predicts the city's population will swell to about 1.7 million by 2051, with immigration driving the bulk of the growth.

As of 2024, provincial figures report 1.15 million people living in Ottawa, meaning the province is projecting growth of more than 500,000 people.

Cities are required to use the updated provincial figures and ensure they have enough lands open for growth. As a result, Hemson says Ottawa will need to find space for 257,750 new households by 2051 — far more than the existing supply of greenfield land can accommodate.

Recommendation would throw out intensification policy

Where will all those extra homes go? Under the city's current policy, it's supposed to direct 51 per cent of new development into the existing built up area through infill development, also known as "intensification."

That means apartments and condos, duplex and triplex suites, and small-scale builds on vacant or underused lots. Thanks to a surge of apartment development, intensification in Ottawa has actually exceeded the target in recent years.

If the city stood by that policy, it would only need to expand the urban boundary by roughly 860 to 1,010 hectares to accommodate the extra households, since about half of the new residents would be channelled into existing neighbourhoods.

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But Hemson argues that abiding by the target would fight against market forces by restricting the suburban development that new families really want.

The study predicts that three-quarters of household growth in coming decades will come from people ages 30-49 who are more likely to have children and seek single or semi-detached homes. Hemson argues that failing to provide those homes could worsen affordability.

Its study examines five different options before landing on a new split, with about 41 per cent of new households in existing neighbourhoods and about 59 per cent in new suburban developments, not counting a few thousand homes expected to be built in rural villages around Ottawa.

Those new suburban developments would have to make space for about 147,000 households, according to Hemson, far more than the 93,000 that can fit on current land.

The math isn't completely straightforward, since the study has to account for dwellings like coach houses that don't take up any additional space, but after crunching the numbers Hemson calculates a shortfall of just over 52,000 homes.

The large majority of those extra homes would be single and semi-detached houses.

After factoring in the land needed for those houses, as well as streets, parks and schools, that’s how Hemson arrives at the 2,740-hectare figure.

For comparison, while the total area of Barrhaven is sometimes put above 4,200 hectares, the existing built up areas are closer to 2,900 hectares.

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When city staff deferred the April meeting, they said it would be "premature" to make a decision without more clarity from the province.

The government had just introduced Bill 98, which sets new provincial expectations for the top planning documents municipalities use to control development.

It had also proposed updates to the guidelines municipalities use to calculate growth needs — exactly the function that Hemson was tackling in its study.

Arthur White-Crummey is the municipal affairs reporter at CBC Ottawa. He grew up in Ottawa, spent years in Saskatchewan covering the courts, city hall and the provincial legislature, before moving back to his hometown. You can reach him at arthur.white-crummey@cbc.ca