6 more byelections on horizon will test Liberal momentum, pressure other parties

6 more byelections on horizon will test Liberal momentum, pressure other parties

Carney being 'very strategic in grouping the byelections,' says political scientist

The Liberals are taking a victory lap after scoring a hat trick of byelection wins on Monday night — but there are still a batch of seats that need to be filled and will serve as another temperature check of the electorate in the months to come.

Prime Minister Mark Carney's party garnered over 50 per cent of the vote in each riding that was up for grabs on Monday, picking up seats in Ontario, B.C. and Quebec.

"The message from Canadians I think is clear. They've given their support … to the government's plan and I think that's because Canadians are united," Carney told reporters in Ottawa on Tuesday.

Lori Turnbull, a political science professor at Dalhousie University, said the Liberal wins in North Vancouver-Capilano and Beaches-East York aren't surprising given that they're considered safe Liberal seats. But she said she thinks Daniel Gobeil's win in Chicoutimi-Le Fjord was a vote of confidence in how Carney is handling the trade war with the U.S.

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Turnbull said the Liberals picking Gobeil was a sign the Carney government wanted to make the byelection about the trade war.

"The fact that he chose a dairy farmer as a candidate, [signalled] a clear commitment to supply management," she said.

Three MPs resigned in the past week, which makes for five official vacancies at the moment. With Ontario Conservative Larry Brock set to step down later this month, that means six byelections will need to be held.

Conservative Cathay Wagantall officially resigned her Saskatchewan seat on Monday. Her resignation was preceded by former Liberal cabinet minister Steven Guilbeault — who officially resigned on Friday after giving notice that he was leaving back in May — and former NDP MP Alexandre Boulerice who stepped down last Tuesday to run in Quebec's provincial election.

The Bloc Québécois' Simon-Pierre Savard-Tremblay stepped down in June, also to run provincially. Liberal Shaun Chen resigned in mid-August.

Éric Grenier, author and analyst with The Writ, told CBC's Power & Politics that as things currently stand in the polls it's likely that the Liberals will keep the ridings they previously held and possibly pick up a few more.

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"Still going to have lots of intrigue and interest in that next set of byelections and the Liberals will be looking to expand their majority," he told guest host John Paul Tasker.

Grenier said although Brock's riding of Brantford-Brant South-Six Nations has previously been considered a reliable Conservative seat, it will be one to watch when the campaign kicks off.

Brock won re-election in 2025 with just over 50 per cent of the vote, but the Liberals pulled in about 40 per cent. The Liberals picked up around 30 per cent in previous iterations of that riding.

"That will be a lot of pressure for [Conservative Leader] Pierre Poilievre," Grenier said.

Turnbull expects the Liberals will make a push for Rosemont-La Petite-Patrie, Boulerice's former riding. The former NDP MP was the last ripple of the 2011 Orange Wave — the only New Democrat who remained in Quebec. Like in Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, Turnbull said the trade war might become a key issue in the Montreal riding.

"The Bloc and the NDP are in a really tough spot because if the question is, 'who do you want to run the country' — they are not in a position to form government," she said.

When Carney set Monday's three byelections in motion, he opted not to include Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot-Acton.

That riding, east of Montreal, has been largely Bloc territory since the early 1990s. Turnbull said Carney avoiding that byelection in this round of votes "was no accident."

All parties have caps on how much they can spend promoting candidates during byelections. But the cap for a party increases if they're running candidates in multiple byelections and it's up to the party to decide how they want to distribute campaign funding amongst those ridings.

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By calling two byelections in safe seats and one in a competitive Quebec riding, the Liberals had a spending advantage over the Bloc who only run candidates in that province. If Carney had included Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot-Acton, it would have given the Bloc wiggle room to direct more campaign funding to Chicoutimi-Le Fjord.

"Clearly Carney has been very strategic in grouping the byelections in ways that will make sense for him," Turnbull said.

"I think that there will be machinations for sure to try to maintain a Liberal advantage in those [upcoming byelections], both financially and also in terms of just the overall ground game."

Grenier added that the Bloc might have concerns about how safe Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot-Acton is after Monday.

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"The Bloc is going to have to defend their seat … which, after the results in Chicoutimi, might make them sweat a bit," he said.

Of the six byelections coming, three will be in Quebec, two in Ontario (including in a safe Liberal Toronto seat, Scarborough North) and one in Saskatchewan.

In addition to the Bloc stronghold riding, Turnbull said she expects Carney will aim to use the timing of byelections to give his party some sort of advantage over the Conservatives in Brock's Ontario riding.

Once an MP officially resigns, the Speaker has to inform the chief electoral officer of the vacancy, at which point election rules state the prime minister has 11 to 180 days to call a byelection.

Because Savard-Tremblay stepped down in June, the last day that Carney can legally call the next byelection is Dec. 19.

Darren Major is a senior writer for CBC's parliamentary bureau in Ottawa. He previously worked as a digital reporter for CBC Ottawa and a producer for CBC's Power & Politics. He holds a master's degree in journalism and a bachelor's degree in public affairs and policy management, both from Carleton University. He also holds a master's degree in arts from Queen's University. He can be reached at darren.major@cbc.ca.