3 byelections test Carney government's popularity as U.S. trade war heats up

Polls close in 2 of 3 byelections testing Carney government amid U.S. trade war

Polls in two of the three ridings have officially closed. Voting time ends at 9:30 p.m. ET in Ontario and Quebec, so the polls are closed in Beaches-East York and Chicoutimi-Le Fjord.

Chicoutimi-Le Fjord is currently vacant due to an unusual set of circumstances.

Carney secured his majority government in large part due to a number of opposition MPs defecting to the Liberal Party.

In the case of Martel, Carney didn't coax him to his side of the floor as much as he removed him from the floor entirely.

But by appointing Martel to the Senate, Carney did create the opening in Chicoutimi-Le Fjord which he is now aiming to flip to a Liberal seat.

While it's rare for a prime minister to appoint an opposition MP directly from the House to the upper chamber, it has happened several times in the past.

To find the earliest examples of this occurrence you'd have to look back to the late 1800s while the most recent example happened in 1993.

I looked into this earlier this summer so you don't have to. Take a look at my story here if you're curious.

Good evening, I'm a producer and journalist with CBC News, working alongside national reporter Sarah Leavitt in the Quebec riding of Chicoutimi-Le Fjord. I'll be providing updates from the ground on the three-way race.

We're outside former Conservative MP Richard Martel's office in Saguenay, which served as the campaign office for candidate Régis Gaudreault and is where some supporters and members of the party have arrived for a small results-viewing event.

Our colleagues at Radio-Canada are inside, however that invitation has not been extended to us.

Conservative MP Pierre Paul-Hus is among the attendees.

The Liberals will have a bit of a leg up on the Bloc in Chicoutimi-Le Fjord because of how byelection spending rules work.

All parties have caps on how much they can spend promoting candidates during byelections. But the cap for a party increases if they're running candidates in multiple byelections and it's up to the party to decide how they want to distribute campaign funding amongst those ridings.

Given that North Vancouver-Capilano and Beaches-East York are safe Liberal seats, the party can direct most of their funding to Chicoutimi-Le Fjord.

The Bloc, on the other hand, only runs candidates in Quebec and therefore will be held to a tighter spending cap.

The Liberals had a similar advantage during the last round of byelections. Two of the three open seats in April were safe Toronto ridings, while there was a third vote in the tightly contested Quebec riding of Terrebonne. The Liberals ultimately prevailed in all three contests.

But this round of byelections has a slightly different context compared to April's votes. The previous three seats were the only ones vacant at that time. There is currently a second Quebec riding with a vacant seat: Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot-Acton.

That riding has by-and-large been Bloc territory since the 1990s. If Carney had included it in this round of byelections, it would have given the Bloc wiggle room to direct more campaign funding to Chicoutimi-Le Fjord.

I'm a producer in North Vancouver tonight, following the results for North Vancouver-Capilano.

I'm at Liberal candidate Braeden Caley's campaign party at Jack Lonsdale's Public House, where a crew is busy setting up a stage before dozens of volunteers, supporters and nearby members of Parliament are expected to gather and watch as results come in.

Elections Canada estimates that nearly 40,000 voters cast a ballot at advance polls across all three ridings.

Advance voting was open just a little over a week ago. North Vancouver-Capilano saw the highest turnout with roughly 16,700. Beaches-East York and Chicoutimi-Le Fjord had an estimated 11,800 and 11,000 voters cast an early ballot, respectively.

Compared to the 2025 election, advance turnout dropped significantly in both the B.C. and Ontario ridings. Both had over 20,000 voters cast a ballot early.

Chicoutimi-Le Fjord also saw a drop off, but to a lesser extent. Just over 14,000 advance ballots were cast in that riding last election.

On the whole, byelections typically see an overall lower voter turnout compared to general elections.

Hi, I'm reporting from a pub on Queen Street East in Toronto, where members of the Liberal Party will be spending their evening as votes roll in.

The Liberal candidate for the Beaches-East York byelection is Tanveer Shahnawaz. The party selected him as the candidate in July, following the resignation of former member of Parliament Nathaniel Erskine-Smith in June. He previously worked as the office manager for Erskine-Smith and as co-chair of a neighbourhood health and community group, according to a news release.

Shannon Devine, who also ran in 2025, is the New Democratic Party candidate, while Bruce Livesey is running with the Green Party in Beaches-East York. Jim Syrbos is the Conservative candidate in the riding.

Local concerns about cost of living and traffic may not be what ultimately decides the vote in North Vancouver-Capilano. Simon Fraser University political science lecturer Sanjay Jeram says federal voters are often influenced more by their views of the national parties and leaders than by local issues.

"The truth is local issues, especially in the Canadian context, local issues don't tend to drive outcomes as much as we might think," Jeram said.

A local vote with national stakes in North Vancouver

Voters in North Vancouver–Capilano will go to the polls on Aug. 31. Housing, rent and traffic congestion rank among the top local concerns. The results of the race could affect the balance of power in Ottawa as the Liberals are one seat short of a majority.

Hi, I'm a CBC journalist who has lived in North Vancouver for more than a decade.

Six candidates are on the ballot in North Vancouver-Capilano: Liberal Braeden Caley, Conservative Stephen Curran, NDP candidate Stephen Tweedale, Green candidate Shelley Luce, People's Party candidate Ehsan Arjmand and Independent Jeff Monds.

On the surface, North Vancouver is a scenic and growing part of British Columbia that is voting to replace former Liberal MP Jonathan Wilkinson. But there's a lot more to it than that, including local pressures. North Vancouver was recently ranked the most expensive rental market in Canada by Rentals.ca and Urbanation, with average asking rents above $3,000 a month. And vehicle traffic is another major concern, especially along roads feeding the Lions Gate and Ironworkers Memorial bridges.

For a quick overview of what's at stake in this byelection, watch the video above. Or you can listen to our This Is Vancouver podcast here.

I've been covering trade from Washington, D.C., for the past few weeks. Canada's dispute with the United States became an even bigger conversation in Chicoutimi-Le Fjord after Carney said French language protections were one of several issues that led him to pull the plug on negotiations earlier this month.

U.S. President Donald Trump and two of his trade deputies denied that language was a sticking point. They said Carney made up the accusation to gain political support, including from the public in Quebec.

"This is politics only. If you think I ever said the word 'French'? Do I care about how the Quebecois speak? I mean, what could matter less to America? We don't care," U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told reporters in Washington on Thursday.

"The fact is, we never brought those words up. This is [Carney's] manufacturing."